Twins on Twins

Playing Pepper

2012-02-09T16:34:00.001-05:00

Every year, Baseball Bloggers Alliance founder Dan Shoptaw sends out a few questions to each team's chapter regarding the outlook for that team. As you might have guessed, those question are much more bleak than they have been in a long time. You can read responses from all of the Twins blogs on March 13th, at which time I will provide the link.

1) What was your opinion of the team's off-season?
All in all, it was solid. Unfortunately, a solid off-season isn't likely to be good enough for a team that lost 99 games last season. They avoided bad contracts with Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer (and will get draft picks in their place), they made some nice pick-ups with Ryan Doumit, Joel Zumaya, and Jamey Carroll, and they struck a good deal with Josh Willingham, their biggest free agent signing in franchise history. But their bullpen is still riddled with holes, which could have been filled fairly easily with multiple quality relievers with the $4.5 million that instead went to Matt Capps. Their starting rotation is likely to again be one of the worst in the league, unless Liriano returns to form (more on that in a minute), as Jason Marquis is not an appreciable upgrade in that department. And their hitting still leaves something to be desired given the health of Justin Morneau, and, to a lesser extent, Denard Span and Joe Mauer.

2) Francisco Liriano seemed to be wildly inconsistent last season. Is there any reason to hope he'll be more dominant this season?
He was much closer to consistently bad than wildly inconsistent. Outside of a freak no-hitter (which was still quite the highlight in that depressing Twins season) and a great game in August against the Yankees, Liriano was plain bad. Then again, the year before he had some sabermetrically-inclined fans calling for his inclusion at the top of the Cy Young discussion. As such, he's probably the most polarizing Twins player in recent memory, perhaps with the exception of Nick Punto. As for the hope that he'll be much better this year, I think it's closer to hoping against hope that he will be, rather than any rational expectation for him to be. Like Jason Kubel's knee injury suffered in the AFL in 2004, Liriano's Tommy John surgery will more than likely have us wondering what could have been as he disappoints once again.

3) Justin Morneau hasn't played 100 games in the past two seasons. What are the expectations for him in 2012?
Not much. He had so many injuries last year that I can't even keep track of them all. Wrist surgery, neck surgery, post-concussion symptoms, the list goes on and on. And the fact that Minnesota is spinning it as good news that he is finally no longer experiencing concussion symptoms 18 months after his initial injury? Just depressing. Morneau was in the midst of a magical season before that fateful and seemingly innocuous feet-first slide into second base, and since then he's been a complete mess. I feel for the guy and hope so much that he can come back and be the player he was two years ago, but at this point if he either makes it through the whole season OR provides above average production for any significant portion of 2012, I'll be satisfied.

4) Is there a prospect that will make an impact on the team this season?
With Kyle Gibson going under the knife last year, I don't think there's one clear answer to this question. Chris Parmelee might be a popular choice but I don't see a roster spot for him to start the season, nor do I see him maintaining the success he had in his call-up at the end of last year. Joe Benson and Alex Wimmers might be options, but I don't think the Twins see either as being ready for extended time with the big league club this year. To me, that leaves Brian Dozier or my choice, Liam Hendriks. Dozier might have if the Twins hadn't signed Carroll, but now he figures to be behind Alexi Casilla, Carroll, and presumably Tsuyoshi Nishioka at the midle infield spots. Hendriks pitched decently in his cup of coffee at the end of 2011, and figures to be one of the top choices should anyone in the rotation go down with an injury. Or struggle, which, given the makeup of the Twins' rotation, is virtually guaranteed. He may not have a lot of upside but I think he's the prospect most likely to make an impact this year.

5) Where will the team finish in their division and what are you most excited about for 2012?
As a fan, despite everything I've written, I think they'll come out on top. The White Sox mortgaged for the future this off-season, the Tigers lost Victor Martinez and are playing a man at third base who could pass for an NFL offensive lineman, and the Indians just played over their heads last year. And do I even need to mention the Royals? As a realist, the Tigers have to be the favorite to win the division with Verlander, Cabrera, and now Prince Fielder. After that, it's a bit wide open, so I'll be a homer and pick the Twins a distant second--around .500--to the Tigers.

And I'm most excited about Joe Mauer. I am the biggest apologist and fan of him, even in Twins territory. When so many fans turned on him toward the end of last year, I remained one of his staunchest supporters. He's healthy now and he'll be back to form this year. He'll never repeat his 2009 season, but I see another batting title coming in 2012.

A Recap of the Twins' Offseason

2012-02-07T16:28:00.000-05:00

The last time the Twins organization saw this many changes in one season was back in 2007, when perennial all-stars Torii Hunter and Johan Santana departed. In trying to avoid replicating a disastrous 99-loss season, Minnesota sacked Bill Smith and reinstated Terry Ryan as General Manager, who stepped down in that same 2007 season. The moves Ryan have made since then have mostly been positive, as he's helped situate the Twins to be better than they were in 2011--thought that wasn't all that difficult.

There are still many holes, however, and many of the problems that produced 99 losses last year are still present. While the Twins will probably be better, hopes are not nearly as high as they've been in years past. Let's take a look at each of Terry Ryan's moves one-by-one and evaluate their effect on the prospects of the 2011 Minnesota Twins.

Matt Capps- The gift that keeps on taking. In mid-2010, Bill Smith traded top catching prospect Wilson Ramos for the overrated Matt Capps. In the 2010 off-season, Smith retained Capps for the next season for more than $7 million, a result of Smith's complete over-valuation of the save statistic. In December of 2011, Terry Ryan decided to re-sign Capps for $4.75 million. While that represents a significantly smaller sum than his previous salary, it was still far too much, especially considering the number of quality relievers available as free agents. Aaron Gleeman depressingly captures exactly what the Twins could have done to improve their bullpen with that $4.75 million they spent on Capps. Oh, and they also would have received an extra draft pick if Capps had signed with another team. Ouch.

Jamey Carroll- This was meant as a move to fill the chasm that was created at shortstop last season when Tsuyoshi Nishioka turned out to be woefully under-prepared for the Major Leagues. Of course he's still around and could be better this year, but nobody's hopes are very high. Carroll will presumably begin the year as the starting shortstop, a role that he adequately fits. He's 37 years old so his good defensive ratings from last year are no bet to continue, though, and his slap-hitting tendencies won't make up for his defense if it's below average. Considering the black hole the Twins have often been sporting at shortstop over the last decade, however, this move is solid. 2 years at more than $7 million total may be a little high, but all around this was a decent acquisition.

Ryan Doumit- I don't think there's anything to complain about with this signing. For the low price of $3 million, the Twins have added a switch-hitting catcher who can also play the outfield. With Denard Span and new acquisition Josh Willingham locked into outfield spots, Doumit will either play DH or take the third outfield position from Ben Revere. In addition, he provides a very capable option at catcher if Joe Mauer gets injured or just to fill in on his regular days of rest. Doumit is no superstar but he's a great fit for the Twins at a great price.

Josh Willingham- The biggest move of the Twins off-season was essentially choosing to sign Willingham over re-signing Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer's popularity with Minnesota fans and the media is well-known, but the fact of the matter is that this was the correct move to make. Cuddyer signed with the Rockies for $30 million over 3 years, while the Twins got Willingham for $21 million over the same period. In addition to saving $9 million, Minnesota will also get two extra draft picks because another team signed Cuddyer. And, despite that, they really didn't lost much, if anything, in terms of on-field production. Willingham is a poor-fielding right-handed power bat, just like Cuddyer, except that he gets on base a little more while hitting for a slightly lower average. It's sad to see Cuddyer go, but Ryan did well in making this tough decision.

Joel Zumaya- This was a low-risk, high-reward signing that will probably give the Twins little to no value. Zumaya hasn't pitched since mid-2010, when his elbow shattered while pitching for the Tigers against Minnesota. The likelihood that Zumaya will be healthy and effective at all in 2012 is low, and the likelihood that he will be both of those for anything resembling an entire season is essentially zero. Nonetheless, for $800,000 it was worth the risk. In the past, when healthy, Zumaya has been a top-flight reliever, something the Twins sorely need with the departure of Joe Nathan.

The Final Word on Instant Replay

2012-02-02T15:51:00.000-05:00

In 1966, following a controversial call that cost his team a victory, Florida State football coach Bill Peterson remarked upon a novel idea: “With all the electronic devices we have in football, why don’t we have videotape or something like it to help officials?”

You see, just three years earlier CBS had aired the first replay ever. CBS Director Tony Verna had almost single-handedly made it possible, outfitting a 1200-pound videotape machine for the job and pioneering a system that could efficiently track time on the recorded videotape. During an Army-Navy football game on December 7, 1963, replay made its debut following an Army touchdown. The concept was so shocking that broadcaster Lindsey Nelson needed to tell viewers that “Army did not score again!” Tex Schramm, who hired Verna and would go on to become General Manager of the Dallas Cowboys, immediately grasped the historic impact, saying to Verna: “What you have done here will have such far-reaching implications, we can’t begin to imagine them.”

Almost half a century later, those implications have certainly been realized. As Brad Willie, Vice President of Dixon Sports Consulting explains in regard to video replays: “We can control up to 16 cameras… We can show forward and backward slow-motion, frame-by-frame, and jogging. If they want to see another another angle or the first angle again… we can do all of those motions with one operator.” Every play of every professional sports game is filmed from multiple angles, and a close play never passes by on television without multiple replays.

And yet, in the 2009 Major League Baseball postseason, Joe Mauer was forced to continue batting after he had roped a ball into the left-field corner, seemingly for an obvious double, because the umpire called it foul.
And yet, in that same postseason, Robinson Cano was allowed to stay at third base after both he and Jorge Posada were seemingly tagged out by Mike Napoli while standing in the vicinity of the bag, because the umpire ruled him safe.

And yet, in June of 2010, Armando Galarraga got credit only for a one-hit shutout despite seemingly retiring 27 consecutive batters for the 20th perfect game in Major League history, because the umpire called the 27th batter of the game safe on a groundball to first baseman Miguel Cabrera.

You know what really happened, and every fan watching on television knew what had really happened within seconds: Mauer had, in fact, hit a double, Napoli had actually tagged out both Posada and Cano, and Galarraga did indeed complete a perfect game. But umpires Phil Cuzzi, Tim McClelland, and Jim Joyce, respectively, saw the plays differently—that is to say, wrong—and there was no recourse in place to correct their mistakes.

Forty-five years after Bill Peterson first lobbied for some technical aid for officials, in Major League Baseball those officials are still not permitted look at a replay to see what truly occurs except in very specific circumstances. While every fan across the world knew the proper calls immediately afterward, the umpires—the only people who could change the official result—were the only people not allowed to consult video replay to get a second look at the plays.

At this point, Major League Baseball is pretty much alone in that resepct. Across the board, professional sports leagues have expanded instant replay to aid their officials.

The National Football League first experimented with replay in 1986. After a trial period, it disappeared because of the league’s top-heavy voting policy, though 17 of 28 teams and the commissioner at the time, Paul Tagliabue, were all in favor of continuing with it. Said Jim Finks, then the owner of the New Orleans Saints, twenty years ago, “We’ll regret the day we voted it down. This is a major step backward for the NFL. This is stupidity on the part of our league.” His words proved true when, eight years later, the NFL re-introduced instant replay, and has continued to use it extensively since then.

The National Basketball Association has been using instant replay since 2002, at first only to judge whether shots at the end of quarters were released in time. Stu Jackson, the NBA’s Senior Vice President for Basketball Operations, explained: “Plays sometimes occur in which it is impossible for a human being to determine whether the play took place before time expired.” It’s not exactly a revelation that human beings are fallible, but admitting it and working to make up for it is something every other sport has been willing to do. The NBA is constantly looking to improve replay, with an instant replay committee featuring general managers and coaches approving additional replay opportunities both in 2008 and 2009.

The National Hockey League’s use of instant replay dates back to 1991, when officials were newly allowed to check close calls on goals and potential goals, and it streamlined the process in 2003 by giving the responsibility to off-ice officials. With the initial inception of replay in 1991, NHL president John Ziegler pointed out: “We can at least…provide assistance to those people, who, under great pressure and at very difficult times, have to make these difficult decisions.”

NASCAR uses instant replay to determine if cars pass into pit road before a caution flag is raised. Professional tennis, encompassing both the USTA and WTA, has taken on more extreme measures, using a computerized system termed HawkEye, rather than video replay, to judge if a ball lands in or out. In defending the decision in 2006, USTA CEO Arlen Kantarian said: “We have to change with the times… We can’t stick our heads in the sand.” In college football, multiple conferences have recently upgraded to High Definition replay in college football.

What has prevented instant replay from taking hold in baseball, when every other American professional and college sport with the means to use it does so extensively? Why is it that the authorities in each of the aforementioned leagues have realized the benefits of instant replay, but MLB commissioner Bud Selig staunchly opposed its introduction and stubbornly continues to fight against any additions? It boils down to his faulty reasoning, and the shrinking number of people who indulge each aspect of it. Wall Street Journal contributor Jason Gay separates these people into three different groups: the romantics, the slippery slopers, and the laughably impatient.

New York Times writer George Vecsey exemplifies the romantics’ point of view: “Imperfect umpires are as much a part of this sport as imperfect fielders who muff a pop fly or imperfect runners who neglect to touch a base.” They are traditionalists who think that umpiring errors are part of the game because, well, they always have been, and for that reason they must stay. They fear that instant replay will remove the human element, and, as Selig described, “It’s been said for 150 years that you can’t remove the human element from baseball.”

That reasoning is both mistaken and misguided. Humans will stay play the game, and humans will still umpire the game, but those umpires will just be able to use technology to help them make difficult calls. Instant replay will only eliminate the human element insofar as the human element is synonymous with officiating mistakes.
Even more ridiculous is the notion that it is tradition for umpires to make incorrect calls, accidentally of course, and thus that they must be able to do so. Do these people think that if, when baseball was first played in the mid-nineteenth century, players and coaches had had the option of using a replay system they would have balked at it? As Vecsey points out, umpires in that era often asked passing spectators for help with calls. At one point, that was tradition too, but baseball got rid of it because it correctly decided that it was not the best way to officiate games. The only reason that, for 150 years, people have said you can’t remove the human element—again, the human element being equivalent to incorrect calls—from baseball is that for the first 140 years you couldn’t. And we still can’t entirely eliminate it, but thanks to advanced video technology we can significantly limit its affect on the game.

Even in a sport that usually changes at a lurching pace, there are other examples of parting with tradition. For instance, in January of 2009, a new rule was approved to get rid of “the traditional and historic practice of using coin flips to determine which team hosts a one-game playoff.” This was a direct result of a one-game playoff the previous season in which Minnesota played Chicago for the American League Central title and a spot in the postseason. The White Sox had won the coin-flip, forcing Minnesota to travel to Chicago for the game that they subsequently lost 1-0. The Minnesota organization complained bitterly that, despite having won the season series, they had to play on the road for the play-in game. Lo and behold, that was adopted as the new rule within months. And the very next season, Minnesota again was in a one-game playoff for the division crown, but this time Detroit had to meet them in Minneapolis because of the rule change.

In 2010, the Twins again stirred controversy, as they managed a ninth-inning victory over Tampa Bay when an infield popup off the bat of Jason Kubel struck a catwalk close to the roof of Tropicana Field and dropped in for a game-winning single as a result. This time, Major League Baseball didn’t even wait until the offseason to change the rule, stipulating that, starting with the 2010 postseason, any ball that hit a catwalk would result in a do-over. Joe Garagiola Jr., Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations, explained that the rule would “take an element of randomness out of the game.”

Both those rule changes were made in the attempt to create a fairer game with less randomness outside of the skill of the players involved, and ignored any sense of tradition that had kept them in place previously. You know what else would achieve both of those goals? Instant replay. It would help eliminate randomness regarding whether a play was called correctly or not, and I think everyone will agree that would make the game fairer.

But, of course, those aforementioned rule changes were much simpler than instituting full-fledged instant replay. That’s where the slippery slopers and the laughably impatient come in. Not necessarily in favor of the errant calls made by umpires, as the romantics are, these two groups are concerned with the precedent more instant replay will set and with the delays it will cause.

Mike Scioscia, the current manager of the Los Angeles Angels, articulated the slippery slope argument perfectly: “It should be limited to a home run or fan interference [as it currently is]. There are so many things that you can question that it would be almost dysfunctional.” Oftentimes, opponents of instant replay will carry that line of thinking to outrageous ends, wondering how soon it will be until robots replace umpires entirely and machines play the game instead of humans.

That argument is pure fallacy. Obviously, carrying any policy to its furthest extent will make it look absurd, and intimating that instant replay will be like a runaway train once it starts is doing just that. As long as the rules regarding instant replay are carefully constructed, as just about everything in the Major League rulebook is, it will not degenerate into a system that looks at every play and turns umpires into powerless spectators.
Oh, but what about all the time it will waste, the laughably impatient argue. This is a legitimate concern, as Major League Baseball is already attempting to implement strategies that will shorten games and prevent them from regularly pushing beyond three hours. This group’s mistake, therefore, is not in worrying about time, but in thinking that instant replay will significantly lengthen games. Instant replay will not be the drag on game pace that these folk think it would.

For a case study, consider the Little League World Series (LLWS), a set of baseball games played by 12-year olds for free, which has instituted extensive instant replay, allowing umpires a second look at force outs, tags, missed bases, and hit batters. In the 30 games played during the 2010 LLWS prior to the final day of the tournament, sixteen calls were reviewed—eight of which were overturned—and the average delay was estimated at 52 seconds. For the small price of approximately 30 extra seconds per game, the LLWS made significant strides toward eliminating all erroneous calls.

On top of that, there’s the fact that baseball often already experiences lengthy delays on controversial or missed calls, and thus there is the possibility that instant replay won’t truly add any time to games. We’ve all seen a manager walk out of the dugout, despite knowing that nothing will be changed, to get in a shouting match with an umpire that winds up wasting multiple minutes while everyone else simply watches the spit fly from both of their mouths. With instant replay, the umpire will instead spend that time making sure the correct ruling is made. That sounds pretty good to me.

Then there’s the last type of person who advocates against instant replay, the Michael Hiestands of the world. Like the USA Today writer, they are so misguided you realize there’s no hope of convincing them, and you just hope there aren’t enough of them out there to stand in the way. In the process of denouncing replay, Hiestand writes the following: “Thanks to technology, we’re no longer allowed to get lost, ever be out of touch with the office or late with a check that’s, uh, in the mail. Spellcheck, GPS, TiVo, red light cameras, and thermometers stuck in turkeys keep taking guesswork out of our lives.”

I understand the sentiment, but to suggest that the negative aspects of those technological advancements outweigh the positives is preposterous. Yes, it’s harder to pretend we’ve gotten lost, but what about the times when we previously would have ended up driving in circles for hours and can now avoid it? Yes, it’s harder to be out of touch with the office, but what about the ability to be in contact with friends and loved ones around the world that technology has afforded us? Yes, it’s harder to dupe our credit card company, but what about possibility of paying that bill online on the last day since you forgot and otherwise would owe huge late fees? And, yes, instant replay will mean sometimes we won’t get the benefit of a bad call, but Armando Galarraga won’t lose his place in baseball lore because of an umpiring mistake either. Enjoy your guesswork, Mr. Hiestand—I’ll take the technology.

Considering the amount of time I just spent debunking the myths that opponents of instant replay use as arguments, it would seem that they are in the majority; that, however, is not the case. Even back in 1986, when the technology was much more limited, 66 percent of fans thought the NFL’s replay system improved the game, compared to just 20 percent who thought it made the game worse. As for baseball fans, after Galarraga was robbed of his perfect game in June of 2010, 78 percent came out in favor of instant replay. Look at any survey you want, and they all send the same message.

So where does Selig draw his support from? “Most baseball people are really against it. There’s no question about it,” he explains. I don’t doubt that some baseball people agree with the romantics, the slippery slopers, and the laughably impatient, but there are certainly plenty that have publicly embraced replay. Managers such as the Rays’ Joe Maddon, the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle, and Tony LaRussa (Cardinals) have all given their stamp of approval. As La Russa put it, “There’s nothing wrong with using replay. The number one priority for the umpire is to get the play right.”

Many umpires, long stubborn antagonists against replay, have also recently converted. Don Denkinger, who made one of the most infamous blown calls in the history of the sport in the 1985 World Series, is among them: “I had 30 great years…and I had one call that’s all anybody ever wants to talk about. It’s not right.” He continued, “Instant replay can clean things up… I didn’t feel that way in ’85, but I feel that way now.” Tim McClelland, who missed one of the calls described in the introduction, has also had a change of heart: “I know I wasn’t for it. But after watching what I went through in the playoffs last year and then what Jim [Joyce]’s going through, I think more and more umpires are coming around to it.”

Anybody who saw Joyce’s tearful press conference after he ruined Armando Galarraga’s perfect game can’t help but feel sorry for the guy. They know what he wanted most was to get that call right and to give Galarraga his place in history. His fellow umpires have largely swallowed their pride, too, and admitted that, like every human on the planet, they are imperfect and could use the help. They take such a beating for missing calls, if they are ready to embrace replay technology, who are we to deny them?

Despite Selig’s assurances, both the fans and enough baseball people are ready for expanded instant replay that it’s time for him to forget his personal feelings and start working on the logistics of it. Lucky for him, it’s not that complicated, and there are improvements he can make to the existing system that will mitigate his concerns.

There is no doubt that the technology is there to make instant replay work on an extended basis. ESPN uses 14 cameras when it broadcasts Sunday Night Baseball and 7 cameras for other baseball broadcasts, and Fox Sports, which broadcasts many local games, has 8 cameras at its disposal at most of its games. As ESPN Vice President of Event Production Tim Scanlan reports, even with 7 cameras, ESPN is “able to provide a second or third look that the umpire doesn’t have.” College football sometimes even uses replay in non-televised games by using 4 cameras for the sole purpose of replay reviews.

That’s one argument you will often hear regarding the logistics: if every single one of the 2,430 regular season games scheduled each year can’t have replay, then none should. What’s the reasoning for that? Essentially, because a handful of games aren’t televised each year, each game should be less fair? Because in a few games each season teams are still subject to blatant officiating errors, teams should be subject to them in every game? Having replay does not make the games without replay less fair, but preventing replay from being expanded in those games that can have it misses an opportunity to make those games more fair.

That being said, the current method of replay must be changed to allay Selig’s and fans’ legitimate worries about extending games. Having the umpires leave the field is an unnecessary and costly measure in terms of the resultant delay. Instead, as is done in the NHL and NCAA football among other sports, baseball can have the calls reviewed by off-field personnel. They can put an umpire in the press box, or anywhere in the stadium with access to replay, and allow him to communicate with the crew chief on the field via a microphone. If he sees a close play, he takes a look and tells the umpire he is doing so. By the time Josh Beckett has taken his average 45 seconds between pitches, he’s already made up his mind about what is to be done. If the play is close enough that he can’t make up his mind within a reasonable amount of time, he sticks with what was called on the field.

Obviously this would necessitate adding an extra umpire for each game, but I think that small cost is definitely worth it. Besides, we’ve seen it happen before. You probably aren’t aware, but in 1977 the Atlanta Braves put an umpire in the press box to determine if replays were too controversial to show on the stadium video board. That practice didn’t catch on, but, instead of using him in an attempt to prevent fans from knowing the truth, couldn’t they use him to help the umpires know the truth and change the call? Now that would keep the fans’ anger with the umpires at bay.

Here’s one example of how it would work which I happened to witness in an Angels-Twins game while writing this. Erick Aybar was leading off the bottom of the first inning against Minnesota’s Carl Pavano in a game on September 2. He grounded a ball to first baseman Luke Hughes, who made a diving stop, and then was forced to race Aybar to the bag since Pavano was slow off the mound. On a bang-bang play, Aybar was called out by the first base umpire. As the TV broadcast showed a replay definitively confirming the original call within 10 seconds, Mike Scioscia left the dugout and spent between 30 and 40 seconds discussing the call with the umpire.

It seems so simple. In that case, replay would have actually saved time. In fact, if it worked ideally, you wouldn’t even know the play was reviewed, as the normal time in between batters would have been more than the time used to review the play. And, if it had been overturned, it wouldn’t have taken much more than the 30 or 40 seconds to do so, even including the time to get Aybar out of the dugout and on first base.

When baseball finally does expand instant replay, which it will eventually, it will not be the most unprecedented use of replay in baseball history. And the initial inception of replay for home run calls wasn’t either. No, that was in a 1999 game when umpire Frank Pulli went to a camera in the Florida Marlins’ dugout to review a home run call. Long before there was any rule stipulating for replay, Pulli decided it was in the game’s best interest that he get the call right, tradition be damned. Upon reviewing it, he saw conclusive evidence that Florida’s Cliff Floyd’s hit did not clear the wall, and changed the ruling from a home run to a double.

Why did Frank Pulli feel the need to consult a video replay? “At that moment, I thought it was the proper thing to do.” You can say that again.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

2011-12-13T18:05:00.000-05:00

Now, obviously, it's a long way before the start of both the real and fantasy baseball season. But to pass the long months until then (and because I was eliminated from competition in both of my legitimate fantasy football leagues today), I have joined a fantasy baseball mock draft through the Baseball Blogger's Alliance.

We'll be drafting for a standard 5x5 rotisserie league. There are 14 teams and we'll be going through 16 rounds, enough to draft 9 position players and 7 pitchers. Each pick can last as many as 8 hours, so it could take a while. Of course, it also may go much faster. Depending on how quickly it goes, I'll be updating here on my selections. Jeff Furtah, of BleacherGM.com, is running the draft and will be providing updates throughout the process.

A Twins' Fan Christmas List

2011-11-26T14:43:00.002-05:00

With Thanksgiving having just passed, it's now officially the Christmas season, a joyous reprieve from the cold, dark, and depressingly short days of winter. That also means it's that time of year when your family members are trying to figure out what that perfect gift will be. Well, consider this a cheat sheet (in no particular order) for the Twins' fan in your family or friend group.

1. Winter Hat

Any self-respecting Twins fan will already have the classic style baseball cap, but it's getting too cold for that to be comfortable. With this, they'll be able to stay warm and sport their team pride as well. But please, don't make the mistake of getting this:

They may never forgive you.

2. Tie

For the professional Twins fan (though not too professional), this fits perfectly. Unable to wear their sport their Twins fandom on any other part of their work outfit, they can show their support on their tie. Or, for the high-rolling professional, spring for the silk tie.

3. Sweatshirt

I already have a Twins sweatshirt, but otherwise this is a great option. There are a number of different styles (zip-up, pullover, hooded, etc.), and a number of different designs. Figure out what type of sweatshirt the Twins fan on your list likes and be sure they can count a sweatshirt among their wardrobe.

4. Player/Custom T-Shirt

There are so many t-shirts, and just about any one of them would make a good gift, but why not customize and provide your recipient with exactly what they want? Do they want their name and favorite number on their t-shirt? Do they long to relive Nick Punto's Twins days with a #8 Punto jersey? Do they prefer an obscure #54 Ryan jersey to harken back to Michael Ryan's short-lived Twins career? Do they want to celebrate Tsuyoshi's Nishioka explosion onto the American baseball scene with... er, never mind. But it's all up to you with this option.

5. Joe Mauer Shirt

For the unabashed Joe Mauer fan who, despite his rough 2011 season, has never wavered. It's not going to be as popular a shirt as it would have been in other years, but for the fan who has defended him the whole year and would like to continue to show his support, it makes a perfect gift. Just remember that even the most avid Mauer fan will not want this:

Seriously, what is the point?

6. Twins T-Shirt

Are you trying to convince your significant other to become a Twins fan? Surprise her by purchasing a Twins t-shirt for her! She may not like it, but how else will you make any progress in converting her?

7. iPhone Case

If they want to dress themselves in Twins clothes, they probably also want to dress their belongings in Twins paraphernalia. Help them out by getting them a case for their iPhone (or Droid or iPod or Kindle) that will display their Minnesota pride. Don't let them carry their electronics around in a generic case anymore!

8. Throw Blanket

Again, help them stay warm this winter with a sporty Twins blanket. When they're laying in bed it will keep their spirits up by reminding them of the beautiful spring days ahead when the Twins will take the field again.

9. Refridgerator

One of the crown jewels of gifts for Twins fans, this one breaks the bank at $500. But if you have the means, and your recipient won't feel guilty accepting it, this is a fantastic option. They can keep their snacks and drinks cool right by their favorite chair while they watch their team play.

I've outlined some of the best gift ideas, but don't limit yourself to those. There are a ton more accessories available, from cups to glasses to light switch covers, and each Twins fan will want something different.

Bill Smith Fired

2011-11-07T17:51:00.002-05:00

Four years after being installed as the General Manager, Bill Smith has been fired. Following a disastrous 99-loss season, the Pohlad family has decided to replace the man responsible for constructing the roster that finished with the worst record in the American League, despite the franchise's highest-ever payroll. From trading Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris to signing Nick Blackburn to an entirely unnecessary contract extension to turning Wilson Ramos into an overpaid and overrated reliever to giving away J.J. Hardy for two replacement-level relievers, Smith's tenure has been a series of bungled moves.

In his stead, the Twins have brought back Terry Ryan, who stepped down in September of the 2007 season, leaving Smith to deal with the Torii Hunter and Johan Santana situations. While I thought (and still think) Smith made the right move in letting Hunter walk and I don't particularly blame him for the Santana disaster, the rest of the moves were can definitely not be attributed to Ryan and were even worse. Ryan is a legend in the Minnesota organization and he can't really be any worse than Bill Smith was, but it remains to be seen just how long he will occupy this position.

Last time he stepped down he cited a lack of energy or interest in doing the general manager's duties. Either his time off caused him to regain that fire or he's doing the Twins a favor as they look for somebody else (or he just couldn't stand to see Smith's continued blunders and felt obligated to take his place). Regardless, hopefully Ryan's return means a return to the shrewd moves that made the Twins contenders for the past decade despite a relatively small budget.

2011 All-MLB Teams

2011-10-21T09:15:00.000-04:00

ALL-MLB FIRST TEAM
Catcher: Alex Avila, Detroit
First Baseman: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
Second Baseman: Dustin Pedroia, Boston
Third Baseman: Adrian Beltre, Texas
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado
Left Field: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
Center Field: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL
Right Field: Jose Bautista, Toronto
Designated Hitter: David Ortiz, Boston
Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Detroit; Roy Halladay, Philadelphia; Cliff Lee, Philadelphia; Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles NL; Jered Weaver, Los Angeles AL
Relief Pitchers: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta; Mike Adams, San Diego/Texas; Mariano Rivera, New York AL

ALL-MLB SECOND TEAM

Catcher: Mike Napoli, Texas
First Baseman: Adrian Gonzalez, Boston
Second Baseman: Ian Kinsler, Texas
Third Baseman: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
Shortstop: Jose Reyes, New York NL
Left Field: Alex Gordon, Kansas City
Center Field: Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston
Right Field: Justin Upton, Arizona
Starting Pitchers: Cole Hamels, Philadelphia; Dan Haren, Los Angeles AL; James Shields, Tampa Bay; Doug Fister, Seattle/Detroit; C.C. Sabathia, New York AL
Relief Pitchers: Jonathan Papelbon, Boston; Koji Uehara, Baltimore/Texas; David Robertson, New York AL

ALL-MLB THIRD TEAM

Catcher: Miguel Montero, Arizona
First Baseman: Joey Votto, Cincinnati
Second Baseman: Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati
Third Baseman: Aramis Ramirez, Chicago NL
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy, Baltimore
Left Field: Matt Holliday, St. Louis
Center Field: Curtis Granderson, New York AL
Right Field: Lance Berkman, St. Louis
Starting Pitchers: Ian Kennedy, Arizona; C.J. Wilson, Texas; Josh Beckett, Boston; David Price, Tampa Bay; Felix Hernandez, Seattle
Relief Pitchers: Tyler Clippard, Washington; Sean Marshall, Chicago NL; Rafael Betancourt, Colorado

A reminder that each player was only eligible at one position, that position being the one he played most often.

Stan Musial Award for Best Player

2011-10-20T00:15:00.000-04:00

The last of the Baseball Blogger's Alliance awards is also the biggest: the Stan Musial Award, its version of the MVP. I'll reveal my thoughts on both leagues, though, as with all the other awards, my ballot is only eligible for the American League voting.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
2. Jose Bautista, TOR
3. Justin Verlander, DET
4. Miguel Cabrera, DET
5. Curtis Granderson, NYY
6. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
7. Jered Weaver, LAA
8. Alex Gordon, KC
9. Alex Avila, DET
10. Dustin Pedroia, BOS

Also considered: Ian Kinsler (TEX), Robinson Cano (NYY), Adrian Beltre (TEX), Evan Longoria (TB), Dan Haren (LAA), James Shields (TB)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Matt Kemp, LAD
2. Ryan Braun, MIL
3. Troy Tulowitzki, COL
4. Roy Halladay, PHI
5. Joey Votto, CIN
6. Prince Fielder, MIL
7. Cliff Lee, PHI
8. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
9. Justin Upton, ARI
10. Albert Pujols, STL

Also considered: Lance Berkman (STL), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Jose Reyes (NYM), Cole Hamels (PHI)

The Final Word on Instant Replay

2011-10-19T00:23:00.000-04:00

Recently I wrote a lengthy article for an online magazine regarding the future of instant replay in baseball. I have long been a proponent of replay, and I attempt to once and for all explain why it's an important and necessary part of baseball--although I am quite certain I did not succeed, as some people will never agree with that statement.

Here's one paragraph from my article:

Even more ridiculous is the notion that it is tradition for umpires to make incorrect calls, accidentally of course, and thus that they must be able to do so. Do these people think that if, when baseball was first played in the mid-nineteenth century, players and coaches had had the option of using a replay system they would have balked at it? As Vecsey points out, umpires in that era often asked passing spectators for help with calls. At one point, that was tradition too, but baseball got rid of it because it correctly decided that it was not the best way to officiate games. The only reason that, for 150 years, people have said you can’t remove the human element—again, the human element being equivalent to incorrect calls—from baseball is that for the first 140 years you couldn’t. And we still can’t entirely eliminate it, but thanks to advanced video technology we can significantly limit its affect on the game.

Walter Johnson Award for Best Pitcher

2011-10-18T00:03:00.001-04:00

I'll continue revealing my ballot for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance's postseason awards. Today I'll look at the Walter Johnson Award, given to the top pitcher in each league. Again, my votes count only for the American League, but I'll show you my thoughts on both.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Justin Verlander, DET
2. Jered Weaver, LAA
3. Dan Haren, LAA
4. James Shields, TB
5. Doug Fister, SEA/DET

I think Verlander will run away with this, and rightfully so. Among AL pitchers, he ranked first in IP, ERA, and WHIP, second in xFIP, third in K/9 and K/BB, and fourth in FIP. Not to knock the other pitchers on this list, as they all had great seasons in their own right, but I can't see an argument for someone other than Verlander.

Teammates Weaver and Haren put together quite the 1-2 punch for the Angels this season. Neither struck out a ton of batters, just a respectable amount, but both threw over 235 innings and placed second and third, respectively, in the AL in WHIP. Weaver also was second by 0.01 points in ERA, and Haren led the league in K/BB ratio, thanks to the second-lowest walk rate in the bigs. Some batted ball luck certainly helped Weaver, who had the lowest GB% among qualified starters, but he was pretty good too.

Shields almost reached 250 innings and rated well across the board. Fister is surely the most surprising and controversial name on my list, as I was shocked to find him there myself. His strikeout rate was mediocre, but because of impeccable control he was fifth in the AL in strikeout-per-walk ratio. Combining that with an above-average groundball rate, he was also in the top six in ERA, WHIP, and FIP. I doubt anyone else will have him ahead of C.C. Sabathia, but I thought that statistically Fister had the better year.

Also considered: C.C. Sabathia (NYY), C.J. Wilson (TEX), Josh Beckett (BOS), David Price (TB), Felix Hernandez (SEA)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Roy Halladay, PHI
2. Cliff Lee, PHI
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
4. Cole Hamels, PHI
5. Ian Kennedy, ARI

Halladay won this award last year, and he should again in 2011, followed closely by two teammates and Kershaw. Looking at this, it's hard to believe the Phillies aren't still playing, but that's baseball for you. The first three were all very close, but Halladay prevailed because of a league-best K:BB ratio and FIP combined with an excellent ERA and WHIP. Hamels was a pretty easy choice for fourth, and then the last spot was a toss-up between Kennedy and Cain. Kennedy grabbed it because in the end I valued his superior K:BB ratio more than Cain's continuous home run-dampening ability. I know a lot of people would have Cain's teammate Lincecum in the top five somewhere, but I just couldn't put him there because of his comparatively high walk rate and subsequently comparatively high WHIP.

Also considered: Matt Cain (SF)

BBA Announces Goose Gossage Award Winner

2011-10-17T12:51:00.000-04:00

The following is a press release from the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, of which Twins on Twins is a voting member, announcing the winners of the Goose Gossage Award for the top reliever in each league. Clearly most of the voters valued saves far more highly than I did, although I did agree with the NL choice of Craig Kimbrel.

-------------------------------------------------

BBA SELECTS KIMBREL, VALVERDE FOR GOOSE GOSSAGE AWARD

In earlier voting this postseason by the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel won the Willie Mays Award for top rookie handily while the American League race for that award was much tighter. With the Goose Gossage Award, handed out to the best reliever, Kimbrel got to see how the other half lives, at least somewhat.

Kimbrel beat Milwaukee’s John Axford by 13 points in the votes submitted by the National League voters of the Alliance, accumulating 78 points and garnering 12 first place votes. Axford, on the other hand, received 65 points on the strength of seven first place selections. Kimbrel’s bullpen teammate Johnny Venters was a very distant third with nine total points.

The race in the American League was a little more anti-climatic as Detroit closer Jose Valverde gained 13 first place votes on his way to a league-leading 74 point total. Two New York Yankees followed him in the voting, with Mariano Rivera receiving four first place votes and 56 total points while David Robertson gained 39 points for third.

The complete voting results are as follows (first place votes in parenthesis):

American League
Jose Valverde, Detroit (13) 74
Mariano Rivera, New York (4) 56
David Robertson, New York (3) 39
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston (1) 21
Koji Uehara, Texas (1) 6
Alfredo Acevas, Boston (1) 5
Neftali Feliz, Texas 2
Greg Holland, Kansas City 2
Chris Perez, Cleveland 2
Brandon League, Seattle 1
Vinnie Pestano, Cleveland 1

National League
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta (12) 78
John Axford, Milwaukee (7) 65
Johnny Venters, Atlanta (1) 9
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh 8
JJ Putz, Arizona 7
Sean Marshall, Chicago 6
Heath Bell, San Diego 3
Tyler Clippard, Washington 3
Sergio Romo, San Francisco 1

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance was formed in the fall of 2009 to encourage cooperation and collaboration between baseball bloggers of all major league teams as well as those that follow baseball more generally. As of this writing, the organization consists of 316 blogs spanning all 30 major league squads as well as general baseball writing.

The BBA is organized under a similar structure as the Baseball Writers of America, where blogs that follow the same team are combined into “chapters” and only two votes from the chapter on an award are counted. The blog chapters that are focused on general baseball were allowed two votes as well, which they could use both on the same league or split between the two leagues.

Chapters generally followed one of two methods when casting their ballot. Either representatives of the chapter were given the ballots for voting or a “group ballot” was posted, accounting for both of their votes.

Notably, though the Alliance’s awards come out well before their official counterparts, the BBA selections have matched those of the Baseball Writers of America in all but two instances in the past two years. This, of course, does not include the Goose Gossage Award that is exclusive to the BBA.

Ballots are posted on the respective blogs and for this award, were tabulated on a 5-3-1 point scale for first through third place. In the interest of transparency, links are given below for the ballots. Chapter affiliation is in parenthesis. Those chapters that decided on the group method are noted with an asterisk.

American League
Baltimore Sports and Life (Baltimore)
Baseball Is My Boyfriend (Texas)*
Baseball North (Toronto)
Boston Red Thoughts (Boston)*
Contract Year (Oakland)*
The Flagrant Fan (General)
Kings of Kauffman (Kansas City)*
Lady At The Bat (New York)
Misc. Baseball (History)
Motor City Bengals (Detroit)
North Dakota Twins Fan (Minnesota)
The Rays Rant (Tampa Bay)
Seattle Mariners Musings (Seattle)
Seedlings To Stars (Other)
Some Thoughts On Baseball (Toronto)
Tigers Amateur Analysis (Detroit)
The Tribe Daily (Cleveland)*
Twins On Twins (Minnesota)

National League
Appy Astros (Houston)
Blog Red Machine (Cincinnati)
Cincinnati Reds Blog (Cincinnati)
Dugger Sports (Philadelphia)
The Eddie Kranepool Society (New York)*
The Flagrant Fan (General)
Misc. Baseball (History)
On The Outside Corner (St. Louis)
Phils Baseball (Philadelphia)
Prose and Ivy (Chicago)*
Raise The Jolly Roger (Pittsburgh)
RJ’s Fro (San Diego)
Rockies Woman (Colorado)
22 Gigantes (San Francisco)
Victoria Seals Baseball Blog (Other)
Websoulsurfer (San Diego)
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? (Pittsburgh)

Prior Winners: 2010: Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay; Brian Wilson, San Francisco

The official website of the BBA is located at baseballbloggersalliance.wordpress.com. The BBA can be found on Twitter by the handle @baseballblogs and by the hashmark #bbba. For more information, contact Daniel Shoptaw at founder@baseballbloggersalliance.com.

Willie Mays Award for Best Rookie

2011-10-15T07:30:00.001-04:00

So the Baseball Bloggers Alliance has actually already handed out this award, so I'm a little late to the party. Still, I wanted to share my would-have-been ballot for who deserved each award.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Eric Hosmer, KC
2. Michael Pineda, SEA
3. Jeremy Hellickson, TB

Hosmer and Trumbo were clearly the best of the position players, at least in my opinion. Hosmer's superior batting average and plate discipline numbers gave him the edge, in addition to Trumbo's huge advantage on defense likely not being an accurate measure of each player's performance in the field. The three pitches--Pineda, Hellickson, and Ogando--are very closely grouped. Pineda and Ogando have better peripherals, while Hellickson had better results (i.e. ERA and WHIP). Pineda's strikeout rate was enough to overcome that, while Ogando's was not.

Also considered: ~~Alexi Ogando (TEX)~~*, Mark Trumbo (LAA), Ivan Nova (NYY)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Craig Kimbrel, ATL
2. Danny Espinosa, WAS
3. Freddie Freeman, ATL

I have a hard time voting for a reliever over an everyday player, but Kimbrel's dominance was unmatched, as noted by his appearance at the top of my ballot for the best NL reliever. When you're the top player at your position, that's grounds for the rookie of the year award. Most people have Freeman over Espinosa for the second position, but I don't agree. They have similar counting numbers, but Freeman has the better triple-slash while Espinosa played much better defense at a more difficult position. I gave Espinosa the edge.

Also considered: Brandon Beachy (ATL), Wilson Ramos (WAS), Cory Luebke (SD), Vance Worley (PHI)

*Ogando is not eligible for the Rookie of the Year award. I mistakenly included him as a consideration.

Goose Gossage Award for Best Reliever

2011-10-14T12:37:00.002-04:00

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance has started handing out their awards for the 2011 season. Up next is the Goose Gossage Award for the top reliever in each league. As a member of the BBA, I thought I'd share my ballot for the award. My vote will only count for the American League, as I'm a member of the Minnesota Twins chapter, but I've outlined my thoughts on both.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Mariano Rivera, NYY
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
3. Koji Uehara, BAL/TEX

Believe me, I did not give this to Rivera on reputation. He earned it once again (I realize he actually did not win it last year, he finished third) with a sparkling season. With nearly one strikeout per inning and impeccable control, Rivera totaled 7.5 strikeouts for every walk. He recorded a a 1.91 ERA (4th), a 0.90 WHIP (2nd), and a 2.19 FIP (3rd) to round out another phenomenal campaign at age 41.

Papelbon was a close 2nd, as he exhibited similar control but showed a much greater ability to miss bats, striking out 12.17 batter per nine innings. His WHIP was also quite comparable, coming in at 0.93, but due to some worse luck he had an ERA of 2.94. Unfortunately for him, luck is part of the equation, so he gets the runner-up position.

I don't think anyone will quibble with Rivera and Papelbon being on the ballot, but I'm a little worried people won't be as accepting of Uehara. He doesn't have the saves that Rivera and Papelbon do, but otherwise he's not far behind. Another guy who showed pinpoint control and still missed a bunch of bats, Uehara actually had the highest K/BB rate in the league (a ridiculous 9.44). He gave up a ton of homers, even more than you'd expect from a fly-ball pitcher such as himself, but he balanced that out with good luck in the BABIP department (.196). All in all, his zesty K/BB rate and league-best WHIP of 0.72 were too much to overlook.

Also considered: David Robertson (NYY), Daniel Bard (BOS)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Craig Kimbrel, ATL
2. Tyler Clippard, WAS
3. Sean Marshall, CHC

Kimbrel has already claimed the BBA's Willie Mays Award for the league's top rookie, and now he should add the Goose Gossage Award to his mantle. His sky-high strikeout rate (14.84/9) was second to Kenley Jansen, and, while his control was never his strong suit, he averaged almost 4 strikeouts for every walk. Combining that with a solid ground ball rate (44.8 %) allowed Kimbrel to lead the NL in both FIP and xFIP. As long as his ERA (2.10) and WHIP (1.04) were reasonable--and they were better than reasonable--that was a recipe for winning this award.

Clippard may not find his way on to many ballots because he isn't as big a name as closers such as John Axford and Joel Hanrahan (who had very good years in their own rights), but if you don't overvalue saves, he's right there with the best relievers. He led the league in WPA despite not recording a single save, posted 4 strikeouts for every walk. In addition his WHIP topped all other NL relievers and his ERA was third among that group. Critics will point to his infinitesimal ground ball rate (20.2 %) and his unsustainable BABIP (.197), but I think the facts I already offered outweigh those two factors.

Marshall is another non-closer who pitched very well for a bad team, meaning he may not get much recognition here, even though he should. While he doesn't top any single category, he rates very highly across the board. He topped one strikeout per inning, kept his walk rate very low, induced a high number of ground balls, and kept runners off the bases and prevented runs from scoring.

Also considered: Rafael Betancourt (COL), Jonny Venters (ATL), Joel Hanrahan (PIT), John Axford (MIL), Eric O'Flaherty (ATL), J.J. Putz (ARI)

2011 Game Balls

2011-10-04T21:56:00.000-04:00

How incredibly timely. Within a week after the season ended, I've already totaled up the game balls from 2011. Consider that I posted 2010's game ball tally in mid-July and it seems incomprehensible that I've already done it.

Michael Cuddyer - 18
Scott Baker, Jason Kubel, Trevor Plouffe - 9
Carl Pavano, Jim Thome, Danny Valencia - 8
Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Joe Mauer - 7
Nick Blackburn - 6
Alexi Casilla, Luke Hughes, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Anthony Swarzak - 5
Drew Butera, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Ben Revere, Rene Tosoni, Delmon Young - 4
Chris Parmelee, Matt Tolbert - 3
Scott Diamond, Jose Mijares, Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey - 2
Joe Benson, Alex Burnett, Brian Dinkelman, Liam Hendriks, Jim Hoey - 1

-----------------------------------------
CAREER LEADERBOARD

1. Mauer - 60
2. Cuddyer, Kubel - 47
4. Morneau - 39
5. Blackburn, Young - 38
7. Baker - 34
8. Liriano - 33
9. Span - 29
10. Pavano - 26
11. Slowey - 25
12. Thome - 21
13. Casilla - 18
14. Duensing, Valencia - 15
16. Carlos Gomez - 14
17. Perkins - 12
18. Nick Punto - 11
19. Orlando Hudson, Plouffe - 9
21. Swarzak - 7
22. Brendan Harris, L Hughes, Craig Monroe, Tolbert - 6
26. Orlando Cabrera, Mike Lamb, Mijares - 5
29. Boof Bonser, Burnett, Brian Buscher, Butera, Joe Crede, Livan Hernandez, Nathan, Nishioka, Revere - 4
38. R.A. Dickey, Matt Guerrier, Parmelee, Mike Redmond - 3
42. Craig Breslow, Jesse Crain, Diamond, Matt Macri, Jose Morales - 2
47. Luis Ayala, Brian Bass, Benson, Matt Capps, Dinkelman, Matt Fox, Matt Garza, Hendriks, Hoey, Torii Hunter, Bobby Keppel, Bobby Korecky, Jeff Manship, Wilson Ramos, Randy Ruiz, Johan Santana, Carlos Silva, Rondell White - 1

The Greatest Day of Baseball... Ever?

2011-09-29T02:09:00.001-04:00

Yesterday was one of the most exciting days in baseball history. As far as the regular season goes, I can't think of a better set of games, but I'm young and that may be why. On the other hand, Tim Kurkjian is much older and a much more respected baseball analyst, and he echoed my sentiments, saying: "This was the greatest day of regular season baseball in the game's glorious history." Regardless of where exactly it ranks on your list, it was without a doubt an amazing day. Here's what happened, in timeline form.

12:00 PM: I am informed by Twin #2 that Adam Dunn is not in the lineup for the White Sox. Alas, that means that his quest for infamy has ceased. More on that in another post, as there were exciting moments galore to come.

9:56 PM: Skipping way ahead. In Atlanta, Craig Kimbrel is on the mound against Chase Utley in the top of the ninth inning. With one out and the bases loaded, the Braves led by the score of 3-2. At the same time, the Cardinals were up 7-0 on the Astros, meaning a loss would likely send Atlanta home for the season. Utley came through with a deep sacrifice fly to left field that brought in the tying run from third.

10:02 PM: Kimbrel walked the next batter, his third free pass of the inning, to load the bases, forcing Fredi Gonzalez to go to his bullpen. Out trots Kris Medlen, a pitcher who had thrown exactly one inning in the Major Leagues in 2011. He does his job, though, getting Michael Martinez to pop out, keeping the game knotted at three.

10:23 PM: While Boston, up 3-2 on Baltimore in the seventh inning, continues to sit through a lengthy rain delay, the Rays start to rally against the Yankees. Down 7-0 in the eighth, Tampa Bay has just scored 3 runs to trim the lead to 4. But, though they have runners on first and second, they potentially have only four outs left in their season. Evan Longoria rises to the occasion with a 3-run homer that brings the Rays within one run.

10:26 PM: As the Braves-Phillies matchup pushes into extra innings, the Cardinals seal up their victory, an 8-0 win over Houston. Chris Carpenter dominated from starting to finish, pitching a complete game shutout in which he allowed just two hits and one walk, and struck out 11 batters. It's official now: Atlanta has to keep their postseason hopes alive.

10:31 PM: Although it has no bearing on the postseason matchups, Trevor Plouffe hits a single to drive in Denard Span to break a scoreless tie, giving Minnesota a walk-off win to end its season and avoid 100 losses. Carl Pavano was the true hero, however, as he went toe-to-toe with Bruce Chen (seriously?), putting up a complete game shutout with only 95 pitches.

10:47 PM: With two outs and nobody on in the ninth, and the Rays still down by a run, Joe Maddon sends Dan Johnson to the plate to pinch hit for Sam Fuld. It's a strange decision, if only because Johnson has not had a Major League hit since April 27. Sure, he was in Triple-A for a while, but he was also hitless in his last 20 at bats and had a .108 average on the season. Of course, down to his last strike, Johnson ropes a line drive just inside the right field foul pole for a game-tying home run.

10:58 PM: Play finally resumes in Baltimore, with the Red Sox emerging from their clubhouse having just watched the epic comeback the Rays had completed.

11:40 PM: In the 14th inning, it all finally comes to a close for Atlanta. Following a broken bat, blooping infield single by Hunter Pence that put Philadelphia in front by a run, the Braves' Freddie Freeman grounds into a double play to end the game and complete a collapse that saw an 8 1/2 game lead in early September go by the wayside. St. Louis is officially headed to the playoffs.

11:51 PM: An hour after the Red Sox learned they might not have the luxury of a play-in game even if they lose, Ryan Lavarnway grounds into a double play with the bases loaded and one out in the top of the ninth inning. Boston enters the bottom half of the frame still clinging to a 3-2 lead.

11:54 PM: Brandon Gomes and Jake McGee have combined to put Yankee runners on the corners with nobody out in the top of the twelfth inning. McGee then induces a grounder from Jorge Posada. After Evan Longoria scoops up the ball, he catches Greg Golson straying too far from third base and tags him out.

11:59 PM: Jonathan Papelbon gets the first two outs of the ninth inning before Chris Davis strokes a ball into right field for a double. Immediately afterward, McGee gets the final out of twelfth inning to squelch the Yankees' scoring opportunity.

12:00 AM: Only 30 seconds later, Papelbon gives up a game-tying ground-rule double to Nolan Reimold. Baltimore now has the winning run at second base.

12:02 AM: The next batter, Robert Andino, loops a soft liner into left field. Carl Crawford attempts to make a sliding catch and gets his glove on it, but can't come up with it. He still has a chance to throw out Reimold at home, but his throw is off-line, allowing Baltimore to end their season with a walk-off victory. And, of course, to potentially end Boston's season. It's the first time all year that Boston has lost a game they led after the eighth inning. Previously they had been 77-0.

B.J. Upton takes a healthy cut and misses as the T.V. announcers for the Yankees-Rays game inform their audiences that Boston has lost.

12:04 AM: The remaining fans at Tropicana Field go crazy as the scoreboard operator puts up the result of the Red Sox game. B.J. Upton has struck out and Evan Longoria is strolling to the plate.

12:05 AM: Longoria knocks a line drive down the left field line, almost a mirror image of Dan Johnson's homer earlier in the game. Again it sneaks inside the foul pole for a home run, giving the Rays a walk-off victory and pushing them into the playoffs. They overcame a 9-game deficit in early September and a 7-run deficit with just 6 outs to go in their final game. It was the first time the Yankees had lost a game they led by 7 or more runs in the eighth inning or later since 1953.

2:08 AM: So you tell me: was this the most exciting day in baseball history?

Twins try to avoid 100 losses

2011-09-27T19:45:00.000-04:00

The good news: if the Twins could have chosen anybody in the entire league to pitch against them tonight, they would have picked Sean O'Sullivan.

The bad news: the Twins are a terrible team.

O'Sullivan has thrown 53.1 innings this season, and has a WHIP of 1.78 and an ERA of 6.92. That ERA is the worst in the Majors among anyone who's pitched more than 50 innings, as are his xFIP and FIP. He's also collected just 18 strikeouts in his time on the mound, a rate of 3.04 K/9. Not surprisingly, that ranks last among the same group, as does his K% and his utterly embarrassing 0.69 K:BB ratio. And his career numbers don't paint a much better picture: 6.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 1.23 K/BB.

Of course, if the Royals could pick any team to play against, it would probably be the Twins. While the Astros have a worse record on the season, Minnesota has won 3 of their last 23 games, 5 of their last 34, and 20 of their 71 games since the All-Star break. Anyone who thinks the Red Sox have been playing badly of late should take a look at the Twins' performance. Sure, Boston has won just fewer than a quarter of their games in September, but Minnesota has won only one-sixth of their games.

On an unrelated note, the Adam Dunn watch has taken a turn for the better. Since my original post, Dunn has played in all 3 games and is in the lineup again tonight. He's gotten 12 more plate appearances, including 8 hitless at bats, which puts him at 493, nine away from history. I'll be intently keeping an eye on the White Sox's matchups with Toronto these next two days.

Adam Dunn Chases History

2011-09-24T14:55:00.004-04:00

You've been reading all year about how terrible Adam Dunn has been. What's the root of the problem? Will he re-discover his stroke next year? Will he retire? Is this the worst season of all-time given that he plays designated hitter? Is it the most inexplicable drop-off in performance ever? Was he the worst free agent signing ever?

Dunn reacts after striking out... again.

Those questions may be answered in the future, and some may never be answered. But there is one we will have a definite answer to in less than a week: will Adam Dunn break the record for lowest batting average for a player who qualified for the batting title in the modern era (since 1900)?

Here, I am using the modern definition of qualifying for the batting title, which is a minimum of 3.1 PA per team game. In the past, other standards have been used, including playing in 60% of team games prior to 1920. Bill Bergen qualified at the time with a .139 average in 1909, and again in 1906 at .159, for the lowest batting averages of the modern era. However, in both of those years he wouldn't have been particularly close to being eligible for the batting title according to the modern standard, as he only averaged around 2.4 PA per team game in both seasons.

Here's a full list of the worst qualified batting averages of the modern era:

Click to enlarge

Even if you don't care for that bit of posturing, Dunn at the very least is looking to claim the lowest qualified batting average--period--since 1910.

After yet another hitless game yesterday, Dunn's average currently rests at .163 through 481 plate appearances. The White Sox have five games remaining, and Dunn needs to hit the 502 mark to qualify for the batting title. That's a tall task, as he needs to come to the plate 21 times in that span. Considering that he's only averaging 3.06 plate appearances per team game thus far, and has only appeared in 75 percent of Chicago's games on the year, it wouldn't appear likely.

Of course, it's much more telling to look at how much he has been playing lately to determine if he will crack the barrier. After playing sporadically through the first half of September, Dunn has been in the lineup each of the last 8 games--including both games of a doubleheader on September 20--and has accumulated 33 trips to the plate in the process. That's exactly what he would need to do over the next five days to make history, so it looks like Ozzie Guillen is doing his part.

If Dunn makes it to the mark, he's already essentially clinched the worst qualified average since 1914. Rob Deer owns that honor for the time being, with a .179 average in 1991. In order to overcome that, Dunn would have to do something like get 10 hits in 20 at bats to end the year, which would bring him up to .179. Congratulations Rob, it seems as if you are out of the ignominious record book. And before Dunn, Deer had had a stranglehold on the record, as .194 was the second-worst qualified mark since 1950, and .185 was the second-worst qualified mark since 1920.

If he merely stays at .163, Dunn will have the fourth-worst qualified average since 1900, the worst since 1910, and the absolute worst using today's 3.1 PA/team game standard for qualification. He's got a very good chance to move into third-worst place since 1910 if he can merely put together a 2-for-16 stretch together to end the season, and if he can do something along the lines of 1-for-20 he can nab the second-worst average of the modern era.

Today the White Sox go against Royals lefty Everett Teaford, which may mean Dunn will be out of the lineup. That would cripple his chances of reaching the 502-plate appearance plateau. After that it's all righthanders, so let's hope Ozzie sees this opportunity for what its worth.

Only 7 players since 1950 have managed to hit under .200 while coming to the plate often enough to qualify for the batting title. Since 1920, that number is 14. Adam Dunn has a chance to blow them all away. While the Twins fight against the current sweeping them towards an embarrassing 100 losses, Adam Dunn is faced with the potential of holding a much more ignominious place in baseball history.

Word Search Answer Key

2011-09-20T10:53:00.000-04:00

Pretty self-explanatory. If you've done the word search and couldn't locate a name or two, this is your ticket to completion.

Click to enlarge

Twins 2011 Word Search

2011-09-16T10:51:00.000-04:00

With the Twins 2011 season slowly lurching to a close, we need something to distract us. And then we finish it, to remind us what we were distracting ourselves from. That's why I've made this word search, which features every player to play with the Twins this season, plus their manager. Then, when you're done, write out all the letters that weren't circled for a secret message (how exciting! [it's not]).

Every player is listed by their last name only. Any two players who have the same last name have their first initial included too. Have fun!

Click to enlarge

Answer key to be posted sometime in the next few days. I would have put it right below this, but it's too easy to see the circled players by accident when scrolling through.

Who is Rene Rivera?

2011-09-11T22:29:00.000-04:00

Rivera tags out Chicago's Tyler Flowers at home plate

Rene Rivera, born on July 31, shares a birthday with Harry Potter, but that's the only magical thing about him. After making his first Major League appearance in 2004 with Seattle, Rivera has played the role of a prototypical journeyman catcher perfectly. He's spent time with five different organizations, occasionally getting opportunities to fill in at the big league level.

Drafted by the Seattle Mariners as a 17-year old out of Puerto Rico in 2001, Rivera at that point was an exciting prospect. A second round selection, he split time between rookie league and low Single-A that season. It was a tale of two halves, as Rivera's performance in rookie-ball was very encouraging, while in Single-A he had four hits in 45 at bats, one walk against 19 strikeouts, and a .351 OPS. The next two seasons, at low and high Single-A respectively, were solid, but much of the luster was gone from Rivera's days as a projectable 17-year old.

In 2004, Rivera spent most of the season at Single-A again, although he appeared in four games at the Triple-A level and, despite his inexperience, he received a Major League call-up. On September 22, he made his big league debut, but he did only came to the plate 3 times that season and unsurprisingly did not manage to reach base. Another mediocre season, this time split between Double-A and Triple-A, nonetheless saw Rivera in Seattle for two short stints, where he actually had a very good hitting line.

Perhaps because of that, Rivera earned the backup catcher gig for the Mariners in 2006 when, save for one game in Triple-A, he spent the entire season at the big league level. It was a miserable affair, however, as he came crashing back to earth following his unsustainable performance with Seattle the previous year. A season with a 29-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a .152 batting average, and a .431 OPS, even as young 22-year old, essentially ended any prospect of Rivera becoming a starting-caliber catcher.

It would also be four full seasons before Rivera would be back in a big league uniform. After toiling away in Double-A and Triple-A for three more organizations--the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees--, and not really warranting a call-up with his performance, Rivera signed a minor league contract with Minnesota prior to the 2011 season. Although he displayed the same lack of plate discipline that has hampered him during his entire professional career, Joe Mauer's trip to the disabled list at the beginning of May necessitated Rivera's presence in Minneapolis.

It was more of the same in the Majors, as Rivera's average rested under the Mendoza Line and he added little power or on-base ability on top of it. When Joe Mauer returned, Rivera was predictably sent back to Rochester, although he returned to the big league club in at the end of August. At this point, his average is down to .152 and his OPS is a putrid .419. No matter what the Twins organization says about his game-calling ability or defense, it's clear to anyone who watches him that Rivera is eminently replaceable and probably shouldn't have even a backup job in the Major Leagues.

Fantasy Football Draft Diary

2011-09-08T22:39:00.001-04:00

I can't imagine anyone is interested in my personal fantasy football draft, but if you happen to be that person, this is the right place to be.

On Monday my keeper league did its draft, and since then I've been quite excited for the NFL season to start. It's getting underway as I write this, with a great matchup between the Super Bowl champion Packers and the New Orleans Saints.

Type: Head-to-head, Auction
Number of Teams: 10
Categories: Standard (or close enough it's not worth explaining)
Roster Spots: 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 RB/WR, 2 TE, 1 K, 2 DEF, 4 Bench, 2 IR
Keeper Style: Max of 4 at escalating prices, only 1 can be a free agent pickup

--I only had three keepers because you can only keep 4 players if at least one was kept the previous year too. None of the guys I kept last year were worth holding onto at the price I would have had to pay, so it was just Austin Collie, Kenny Britt, and Michael Vick for me. Each of them was only $1. Collie and Britt aren't great value, but obviously Vick is just about as good as it gets. That meant I had $197 to spend in the draft itself, by far the most of any team.

--The draft starts with a kicker nominated. How boring. Next up is Peyton Manning, who's a huge mystery. Given the 2-QB format, quarterbacks generally go for exorbitant prices, but Manning's injury means he goes for a meager $23.

--The next five players nominated are Drew Brees (who goes for a cool $54) and four running backs: AP ($68), CJ2K ($64), MJD ($57), Michael Turner ($44), and Frank Gore ($45). I was planning to grab Adrian Peterson at any cost, since I had lots of money and no running back keepers, but of course I got cold feet and didn't have the guts. Same thing happened with Chris Johnson. Not picking up one of them, or at least Turner, would be the biggest regret of my draft.

--Among the next couple picks, Brady goes for $46 and Greg Jennings goes for $38. Jennings is a good option, but at this point I have my eyes set on Larry Fitzgerald as my top receiver, and I don't think I can afford to grab both.

--With Frank Gore ($45) and Steven Jackson ($47) going off the board, I'm really feeling a sense of urgency in regard to my running back situation. Still, when Matt Forte is nominated, I back away as the price climbs to $29, since I don't think much of him and the Bears as a whole.

--Finally, Larry Fitzgerald is on the board. His price soars to $45 at which point I clicked to bid with 3-4 seconds left. This wasn't like my half-hearted bids on Peterson and Chris Johnson, when there were approximately 0.05 seconds left to bid. Unfortunately ESPN didn't register my bid and Twin #2 got him for what was certainly not a bargain. Still, I definitely wanted him for $46.

--Now I'm really nervous. The one guy I was planning to spend all my money on is gone and I still have $197 to spend. A couple guys are down to double digits and most are at least closing in on it, meaning I've got a lot of money left but not a lot of talent to spend it on. So, not surprisingly, I panic and grab the next player up, Matthew Stafford, for $13. In the end, I actually liked that pick, but it was definitely a panicked decision.

--Jimmy Graham, one of the two tight ends I have penciled into my starting lineup, is nominated next. Antonio Gates and Jason Witten were kept, but after Dallas Clark, Graham is the second TE off the board. I'm surprised but nab him nonetheless for $5. A dollar or two higher than I would have hoped, but at this point, with the excess money I have, that's irrelevant.

--After a few teams grab defenses and Reggie Wayne ($25) leaves the board, I finally win my first running back, DeAngelo Williams for $24. I like that price a lot for him, even if Carolina will likely be a terrible team. I think the new contract shows a commitment to him as the feature back, and he did rush for 1500 yards and 18 touchdowns just three years ago.

--As the price for Jahvid Best rises to $27 I feel even better about the price for Williams. A couple players later, Jermichael Finley is nominated. He might be the guy I want the most in the whole draft, just as he was last season. I got him last year, only to see him get injured in early October, but I'm back for more at a price of $15.

--Cedric Benson is auctioned off for $17. You couldn't pay me to have him on my team. Then Marques Colston comes up, and I'm still feeling the heat of needing to use up all of my money. I don't necessarily like Colston that much but he seems to be one of the few #1 WRs with a chance to score big points remaining, so I blow $23 on him. Although I kept two receivers, both are big question marks, with Manning's situation devaluing Collie greatly (on top of his concussion and injury issues) and Britt's general enigmatic personality and play putting his contributions in question. This was another one I felt like I had to take, and I didn't feel nearly as good about this afterward as I felt about Stafford.

--A couple mediocre running backs, some kickers and tight ends, and Steve Johnson ($21) go off the board before I nominate Brandon Marshall. Him I'm much more excited about, as he's a #1 receiver coming off a down year which, I think, has people devaluing him. Even with Henne at quarterback, I think he's much better than the receivers he's ranked with. I get him for $24.

--I grab Mark Ingram following a bidding war with Twin #2 for $18, immediately after I lose a bidding war with him for Tim Hightower ($20). High for Ingram, for sure, but high-upside rookies always go for a lot in this league. I don't really think he's worth that price, but there's a chance he breaks out and is a solid keeper, and I still have way too much money to spend. I don't know if you've noticed, but that's a theme. I do feel worse that I didn't bid on Ryan Grant ($15) a couple picks before, though.

--The next player nominated is Anquan Boldin. One of the last receivers at the top of their depth chart, and probably the last one with even halfway-decent offense, I round out my starting receiver corps by paying $19 for Boldin. With that, I finally have less money than one other person to spend, though I have way fewer position left to fill, meaning I still have the highest maximum bid.

--Thirteen picks later I grab another player, my longest break since I went the first 18 nominations without winning anybody. In between, Jonathan Stewart goes for $21. I sure hope that guy doesn't get his money's worth, or it's going to be pretty hard for DeAngelo to give me what I think he will. The guy I get now? Reggie Bush. As I said at the time, every year someone gets sucked into the Reggie Bush hype, and this year it's me. Daniel Thomas, Miami's rookie RB, has looked terrible in the preseason and Bush still has all that talent somewhere. Of course, the counter argument is that Bush has been in the NFL for 5 years and has never shown any ability to even be a good change-of-pace back, never mind a starter. Seeing as how I have him on all three teams, I'm looking on the positive side.

--I take some time off again as nobody that interests me comes up. In the meantime, Thomas ($14) goes for the same price as Bush, which makes me feel good, and Tony Gonzalez is won for $2, which makes me feel a little worse about splurging on Graham early. With my top 3 (and only 3) running backs, I feel the necessity to start stockpiling rushers. Mike Tolbert is one of the few remaining backs who might get starters' touches, so I pick him up for what I think is a very affordable $10.

--Julio Jones is auctioned off next. This is another guy I really, really want. I feel more confident in him having a good or great year than Ingram, so this is the rookie I truly want to have. I'm forced, by Twin #1, to spend $15, which is more than I want to. As I said, though, high-upside rookies always go for more than you expect in this league, and I still have more money than I can spend anyways.

--Just a couple picks later, I grab my final skill player, with just a kicker and two defense spots left. It's Michael Bush ($5), another guy who I really liked last year and am returning to this year. It was Darren McFadden who broke out in 2010, as Bush's injury allowed him to get starter's reps and run away with the job. For just $5, though, I can hope that he'll either split enough carries to be relevant or that the injury-prone McFadden will give Bush another chance to rack up big stats.

--To fill out my roster I pick up the Falcons defense ($1), Matt Bryant ($1), and the Chiefs defense ($3). I would never have paid more than $1 for the Chiefs D, but I didn't have any more roster spots to fill after that pick. I had tried to get the Giants defense much earlier, but since someone else upped the bid after I nominated them, I bowed out, as I never pay more than $1 for a defense or a kicker. As it turns out, it wouldn't have mattered, but that was impossible to know mid-draft.

--All in all, I'm not that pleased. I really needed to get a top-tier running back, considering the number of good running backs kept, but I didn't have the guts to spend the money right away. My receivers are okay, and I'm very satisfied with my tight ends, but my running backs look quite weak. As it stands, I'll be starting DeAngelo, Reggie Bush, and Tolbert in Week 1, which isn't exactly inspiring, especially considering my opponent has LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall, and Maurice Jones-Drew. So, ultimately, my team's fortunes rest on the shoulders of Michael Vick, and whether he can repeat the utterly dominant show he put on in 2011.

An Even Rockier Bottom

2011-09-06T23:01:00.000-04:00

Just when it seems like things can't get any worse, they do. Never say never with the Twins this year, as they continue to surpass their low point, time after time.

On Monday, they lost both games of a doubleheader to Chicago. Anthony Swarzak gave Minnesota a very strong start in the early session, going seven innings and allowing only two runs. It wasn't enough, though, as the Twins didn't give him any support, scoring just one run in the game. With runners on the corners in the ninth inning, Luke Hughes lined out to left field for a sacrifice fly, putting the Twins on the board.

Who would have thought that that would be the best game, and the only run, the Twins would score in the first three games of the series? I suppose if you've been following the season closely, it might have been a logical guess.

In the night half of the doubleheader, Zach Stewart, who came into the game with a 5.48 ERA on the season, made it through 7 innings before he allowed a baserunner. Danny Valencia broke up the perfect game with a double in the eighth inning, but Stewart went the distance, surrendering the one hit and striking out 9 Minnesota hitters.

Scoring one run across two games, and nearly getting no hit in the second had one positive outcome: Tuesday's game would have to be better. Instead, the Twins got shut out yet again.

In that game, three Twins made their Major League debuts. Liam Hendriks got the start, and pitched admirably, throwing seven innings and giving up just four hits. He made one mistake to Alex Rios, who capitalized and hit a home run, but otherwise he looked quite good, though he did manage to let Adam Dunn on base twice.

Joe Benson didn't help Hendriks out on defense, as he made an ill-advised diving attempt on a Alejandro De Aza liner, letting the ball roll to the wall and De Aza to reach third base. He didn't pick up a hit either, although he did draw a walk in a long at bat to lead off the game. Obviously one game is essentially meaningless, so I am excited to see more of what Benson has to offer.

Chris Parmelee also debuted, and he had two fliners drop into centerfield for hits in his first two plate appearances. He ended the game 2-4 and should see many more opportunities in the waning weeks of the season.

But the Twins as a whole looked ugly, at best. They went 0-10 with runners in scoring position. They struck out 14 times. They are now in last place, behind even the lowly Kansas City Royals, and have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. If they win their final 21 games, they will tie their worst record under Ron Gardenhire. They have lost--outright lost, not tied--their last 7 home series, including holding a record of 3-21 in their previous 24 home games. They have won only 2 series period since the All-Star break.

So, please, next time you write a whole article about how being swept by Baltimore at home, while scoring 4 runs total, is the most embarrassing series Minnesota has ever played, keep in mind that they'll be trying to outdo themselves just two weeks later.

Stephen Strasburg Returns

2011-09-05T11:30:00.001-04:00

Strasburg walks off the mound after his last ML appearance on August 21, 2010

On Tuesday, Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg will make his first Major League appearance since he underwent Tommy John surgery last September. He'll start at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers just over a year after he had his operation.

Last June, Strasburg somehow matched the immense hype surrounding him by recording a Major League record 14 strikeouts in his first start, and proceeded to take the league by storm. In July, however, forearm pain forced him to the disabled list. He would return in August, but after three more starts he was shut down for the season. By the end of August it was apparent that right ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction--Tommy John surgery--would be necessary, and on September 3rd he had the procedure performed.

Just more than 11 months later, Strasburg took the mound for a rehab appearance with the Nationals' Low Single-A affiliate, Hagerstown. It was a lower level than he had ever pitched at before and he threw only 31 pitches over 1 2/3 innings before departing, but the excitement was palpable all the same. As he moved up through the minors, worked up higher pitch counts, and dominated opposing hitters in five of his six starts, it became more obvious that he would make it back to the Majors in 2011.

And, on Tuesday, September 4, that journey will be complete. Assuming he has no setbacks, he will make about five starts this year for Washington, something almost no one thought would be possible when he went under the knife twelve months ago. Lynn Zinser of the New York Times represented the prevailing opinion at the time, writing: "Strasburg... is facing a 12-to-18 month recovery from the operation and perhaps another season to recover his form." In defying the odds, Strasburg will give hope to other pitchers that they, too, can accomplish the same feat. Teams and fans will no longer hear Tommy John surgery as a death sentence that will keep the player out for 12 to 18 months, and even then have them return as a shell of their former self.

When Twins fans hear that their top prospect Kyle Gibson must have the same surgery, as was announced mere days ago, they can hold out hope that he will be able to pitch in a few games at the end of 2012. They don't have to look back on Joe Nathan and his 12-month recovery that saw him pitch poorly upon his return before finding himself back on the disabled list. Nor do they have to look at the horror story that followed Francisco Liriano's operation, which forced him out of game action for 18 months and then caused an absolutely miserable season when he did finally return.

Instead, they, and fans across baseball, can look at Strasburg's path, one that took only one year, almost exactly, before he was back at the Major League level and within reach of his former dominance. Beyond the fact that we as fans get to see him pitch again, Stephen Strasburg's return gives us hope for everyone else who receives the same diagnosis.

Article first published as Stephen Strasburg Returns to the Big Leagues on Technorati.

Who is Luke Hughes?

2011-09-04T13:41:00.000-04:00

Hughes celebrates with Justin Morneau after hitting a home run off Justin Verlander

Signed out of Australia in July of 2002, Hughes came to the United States as an 18-year old the following year to start his career. He spent his first two seasons in the Minnesota organization in short-season ball, with the GCL Twins and Elizabethton, respectively, and put up pretty good numbers. In 2005 he moved up to full-season ball for the first time and the result was relatively disappointing. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was worrisome, his OBP was unremarkable, and his decent power wasn't enough to make up for those weaknesses. A 23-game cameo with Ft. Myers only heightened those red flags, as he tallied a pathetic .484 OPS there.

At this point, Hughes looked like the majority of minor leaguers--that is, a player destined to never play in the Majors. And his full-season performance at Ft. Myers in 2006 did nothing to change that, as he once again demonstrated limited plate discipline and subsequently a limited ability to get on base. His power numbers also suffered compared to what they were at the lower levels, and his OPS on the season was under .600.

Nonetheless, the Twins pushed him to Double-A the following season. As it turned out, Hughes responded by playing the best baseball of his career, showing resurgent power and improving his walk rate. It wasn't until after the 2008 season, though, when he finally got noticed as a prospect. That's because he took another leap forward that year, posting an excellent .252 ISO and .415 wOBA in repeating Double-A, and playing in that year's Futures Game, before moving up to Triple-A for the end of the year. A huge strikeout rate and a drop in his plate discipline at that level were concerning in his short stint there, but he also continued to show a good amount of pop.

For those reasons, he entered the 2009 season as a player who could potentially be in Minnesota at some point that season. However, he started back at Double-A and regressed in most offensive categories. At the same time, he was forced to move further down the defensive spectrum to third base, after starting his minor league career at shortstop and then playing second base for the majority of the previous seasons. Upon moving up to Triple-A later in the season, however, he improved both on those numbers and on his performance at Triple-A in 2008.

He entered 2010 as a viable option for the big league club, but did not make the team out of Spring Training and began the season with Rochester. Within a month, though, he was in Minnesota as a replacement for Nick Punto, who had to be put on the disabled list. On April 28, he made his Major League debut and homered in his first plate appearance, the fifth Twin ever to do so. He played the next day too, but was sent down days later on May 1, having made just 7 trips to the plate for Minnesota. A sports hernia and groin injury he suffered at the beginning of June made it impossible for him to return to Minnesota that year.

Hughes again began 2011 in Rochester, but this time he was called up within a week, as Tsuyoshi Nishioka's broke his leg and needed to be replaced on the roster. Hughes has spent the rest of the season bouncing between Triple-A and the Majors, at times displaying solid pop, but at other times looking lost at the plate and always looking like a marginal fielder. Hughes has the potential to be pinch hitter and a backup infielder, but his defensive limitations prevent him from playing a premium position, and his offense isn't good enough for him to be considered a long-term starter at a less important position.

We Needed That

2011-09-03T01:35:00.001-04:00

It's been a very rough season for the Twins, meaning games like last night's have been few and far between. That only makes us appreciate them all the more when they happen. For once it seemed like every ball fell in for Minnesota, as they cruised to a 13-5 victory over the Angels, scoring early, often, and late.

Those 13 runs mark a season high, as do the 16 hits (tied) and 9 walks accumulated by Twins batters [edit: never mind on the hits, as they just changed one to an error]. It was also the first time that the Twins had won consecutive games since July 26th and 27th. That's right--they didn't win back-to-back games in the entire month of August! I guess that's not all that hard to accomplish when you only win 7 times in 28 games, though.

Everyone contributed, as you might expect when a team sets a season-high in runs. Each of the first seven hitters in the order (Ben Revere, Trevor Plouffe, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Danny Valencia, Rene Tosoni, and Luke Hughes) had at least 1 run, 1 hit, 1 RBI, and 1 walk. That's the first time in franchise history that 7 different hitters have done that in the same game, and the last time any team had more players do that was more than a half-century ago. And each of the nine guys in the lineup had a hit, the third time that's happened this season, with only Tsuyoshi Nishioka failing to record an RBI.

Now, on Saturday, they'll have a chance to put together their first 3-game winning streak since they won 3 straight from July 3rd to July 5th.

Episode 2: Minors, Mauer, & Morneau

2011-09-01T22:34:00.000-04:00

First things first, Rooting for the Clothes is now available on iTunes! Subscribe there and leave your comments.

In the second episode, Twin #1 and Twin #2 discuss the news that Kyle Gibson would have Tommy John surgery, the players chosen by the Twins for the Arizona Fall League and for September call-ups, and the criticism surrounding Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau's injuries.

Podcast Powered By Podbean

Download this episode (right click and save)

2010 Highlights Video

2011-08-31T06:00:00.001-04:00

This is simply a video I created to go along with my 2010 Twins Highlights post. Enjoy!

Futility Infielders

2011-08-30T13:00:00.001-04:00

Over at SB Nation, Grant Brisbee wrote a humorous piece analyzing the Major League teams based on "how closely their utility infielder matches the Platonic ideal of a utility infielder." He described a utility infielder as the following:

He's short, scrappy, and probably a switch-hitter, although he can't actually hit. He can field just enough to get by, but not enough to force his way into a starting role. He's not exactly slow, but his SB/CS ratio is often bad and lopsided.

I'd have to disagree slightly with some of that description, but the 'short, scrappy, and probably a switch-hitter, although he can't actually hit' is right on the money. The Cardinals, thanks to old friend Nick Punto, ranked first on Brisbee's list, while Minnesota came in fourth. In ranking Minnesota, Brisbee wrote this:

[R]ight now the factory of utility infielder is based in Minneapolis. The factories usually shift every few years because of tax codes and cheap labor and things like that, but right now the Twins are spitting them out. The Twins don't even have scouts for the last half of the draft, they just have experts in utility infielder names. "Go with Tony Mason in the 42nd ... ooh, Andy Rando in the 43rd ... Skip Stansilus in the 44th ..."

It would be funnier if it weren't so true. Ron Gardenhire, a prototypical utility infielder himself in his playing days, loved no one more than Nick Punto, and has continued that infatuation with Matt Tolbert and others. Those players who actually have hitting skill and/or potential, such as Danny Valencia, quickly find their way into his doghouse upon making mistakes, while lesser utility players have praise heaped on them.

Brisbee does get it wrong, though, when he also lists Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe along with Matt Tolbert as utility infielders. Tolbert fields well enough, is a switch-hitter, and can't hit a lick, while, despite average speed, also being a sub-par base-stealer. Meanwhile, both Hughes' and Plouffe's best attribute is their power. No utility infielder should be able to make that claim. In addition, both have experienced many doubters in terms of their defensive ability, Hughes especially.

Plouffe has played all over the diamond since his call-up, from outfield to first base to shortstop, but his skill set is simply not that of a utility player, and he's got a good chance to start in a middle infield spot for Minnesota Meanwhile, Hughes' defense isn't nearly good enough at any position for him to be considered for a spot as a utility infielder. He much better fits the profile of a bench bat, although he'd obviously have to hit better than he has this year to successfully fill that position.

To sum it up: Matt Tolbert is the very definition of a utility infielder. Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe are not.

In Defense of Joe Mauer

2011-08-29T13:00:00.005-04:00

Over at Nick's Twins Blog, Nick Nelson already wrote a great article describing the situation Joe Mauer is in. But, considering the amount of vitriol directed at him by fans and media members a like, he needs all the support he can get. And he deserves it.

Those people who are attacking Mauer, and labeling him as 'soft', have been incredibly short-sighted and laughably biased. Many of them cite Michael Cuddyer's decision to play with what was probably a very sore wrist on Thursday, while Mauer sat out with a stiff neck. Of course, those detractors conveniently ignore the fact that Cuddyer missed nine days earlier this month after suffering a similar injury swinging during batting practice. They also focus too much on this one season, as Mauer has actually been quite durable for a catcher since his first knee surgery in 2004.

Take a look at these numbers for where he ranks in innings caught, games, and plate appearances among Major League catchers since then:

2010: 951 innings (8th), 137 games (3rd), 584 PA (1st)
2009: 939 innings (11th), 138 games (t-5th), 606 PA (3rd)
2008: 1203 innings (4th), 146 games (4th), 633 PA (2nd)
2007: 777 innings (28th), 109 games (27th), 471 PA (14th)
2006: 1054 innings (8th), 140 games (t-6th), 608 PA (3rd)
2005: 999 innings (14th), 131 games (11th), 554 PA (3rd)

Total (2005-2010): 5930 innings (5th), 801 games (4th), 3456 PA (1st)
Total (2005-2011): 6323 innings (6th), 871 games (3rd), 3741 PA (2nd)

In case you don't feel like scouring those numbers, I'll sum it up: in 5 of the last 6 seasons, Mauer has ranked in the top 3 in plate appearances for a catcher. From 2005 through 2010, Mauer had the most plate appearances for a catcher and played the fourth-most games and the fifth-most innings. Even including his current injury-plagued season, he ranks similarly since 2005. And for those of you that might claim he ranks so high in those categories because he's spent a lot of time at DH, consider that his 2,968 plate appearances specifically as a catcher is the third-most between 2005 and 2010.

I'm not sure how anybody can look at these numbers and call Mauer 'soft'. There's no way a catcher plays that much without often playing tired, hurt, and generally at much less than 100 percent. This stiff neck is one incident, and 2011 is just one season--they don't overrule Mauer's whole career, during which he's been way more durable than people realize, especially when compared to one Michael Cuddyer.

I want to start off with a disclaimer, as this is not an attack on Cuddyer. I like Cuddyer, but those who criticize Mauer often bring up Cuddyer as his antithesis, so it makes sense to compare him to Cuddyer. From 2005 to 2010, Mauer and Cuddyer played in the exact same number of games, 801. With 2011 included, Cuddyer has played in about 50 more, but considering the positional difference that's not a very impressive lead over seven seasons.

Oh, and don't forget, Mauer's been really good, too. In that span, FanGraphs credits him for contributing 33.9 WAR, almost 8 wins ahead of the next-best catcher. Baseball-Reference's WAR calculator likes him even more, as it gives him 38.7 WAR, 16.2 wins ahead of the second-best catcher! And if you prefer some other statistics, he's first in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA, wRC, and wRC+ (and 5th in slugging) over that time period.

So please, if you're criticizing Mauer, take a step back. Look at his career consistency and his league-best performance and cut him some slack. The Twins have so many players who deserve blame for this season; let's not put it all on Joe Mauer.

Debuts, Gardy, and Other Twins Things

2011-08-28T18:00:00.002-04:00

==> Let's start with the worst things first, as the Twins scored fewer than 2 runs in 6 straight games for the first time in franchise history last week. That feat has only been accomplished 14 other times since 1919, and only two times was it done in more consecutive games than what the Twins just did (the record is 9). If you limit it to streaks of home games, as the Twins' was, it's only happened 4 times previously, and just one of those instances went for 7 straight. Therefore, the 4 runs the Twins scored on Saturday against Justin Verlander kept them out of some pretty ignominious company.

==> Ron Gardenhire spoke with Phil Mackey and Patrick Reusse on KSTP radio on Thursday, and let out a few tidbits. For one, he offered Jim Hoey, Chuck James, and Deolis Guerra as players who may get call-ups after September 1. The exciting name on that list is Guerra, who, as we discussed in the first episode of our podcast, has pitched excellently since being moved to the bullpen in New Britain and will be out of options next year. Granted, he was essentially listing players on the 40-man roster, but he did leave off one or two other pitchers, indicating Guerra is at least on the radar.

"Yes, well, maybe ours," Gardenhire responded to Reusse's suggestions that Jim Thome may have offers from some teams to come to Spring Training next season. He definitely passed it off as a joke, but I am a big believer that behind almost every joke there is some truth. Whether or not the front office would be interested, I definitely think Gardy will be in favor of inviting Thome back to the club next year.

==> Lester Oliveros made his Twins debut on Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles and pitched decently, allowing a run on two hits and a walk in two innings. His second outing, however, came against the Tigers on Friday and was fairly disastrous. He got just two outs and allowed 3 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs, including a bases loaded RBI single to Delmon Young, the man the Twins traded to get Oliveros. Of course, it was an infield single that dribbled right down the third base line, but it still counts as a hit.

==> Francisco Liriano lasted only two innings in his start against Baltimore before he was removed due to shoulder soreness. He was diagnosed with a posterior strain in his left shoulder, which very well could mean his season is over. Scott Diamond was called up to replace him on the Major League roster, and started immediately on Friday. He pitched to contact, as his numbers would suggest, giving up 11 hits and 5 runs in 6.1 innings. His line could have been better, but he left with the bases loaded and Glen Perkins allowed all three inherited runners to score.

==> On Saturday night, Stephen Strasburg started against the Rochester Red Wings as part of his rehab assignment. He thoroughly dominated the Red Wings hitters, pitching five perfect innings with 7 strikeouts. He came out for the sixth frame, however, and gave up singles to Aaron Bates and Steve Holm, who's now hitting .179 in Triple-A, before he reached his pitch limit. Bates wound up scoring, meaning Strasburg was charged with one run on his ledger. Still, it was clear that one player belongs in the Majors and one team was well under .500 in Triple-A.

==> Matt Tolbert is back at Rochester in order to make room on the roster for Rene Rivera while Joe Mauer is limited by a neck injury. It's really good to see the Twins keep Trevor Plouffe on the roster and in a starting role as he tries to establish himself as an option for 2012, rather than allowing Tolbert to continue putting up his usual pathetic offensive numbers. Everyone knows what Tolbert offers, and it's not exciting.

Who is Rene Tosoni?

2011-08-28T00:10:00.001-04:00

Tosoni slaps a single in his first Major League at bat on April 28, 2011

Rene Tosoni has defied the odds and reached the Major Leagues despite being a lightly regarded prospect who was selected in the 36th round of the 2005 draft. Minnesota actually selected Tosoni, a native Canadian, two rounds earlier the year before, but he chose not to sign and re-enter the draft. Perhaps because of this experience, Tosoni elected not to take his chances in the 2006 draft, although he waited almost a full year before he signed with Minnesota in May of that year.

And, after all that, a visa issue prevented Tosoni from playing professional baseball in the United States for the 2006 season, meaning he did not debut until 2007, nearly three years after the Twins originally drafted him. Still 20 years old, Rene began his career with Elizabethton where he showed impressive plate discipline and solid power, hitting 38 percent better than the league average, before a two-game cameo in Low Single-A.

The following season, he skipped right to Ft. Myers and showed the same combination of solid power and good patience, which began to get him noticed. Unfortunately, he broke a bone in his left foot relatively early in the season and did not return until late August. Despite that, he was again promoted to start the 2009 season, moving up to Double-A. He continued to perform there, as a significant increase in power made up for a higher strikeout rate and lower on base percent.

That year, he was also selected to play in the Futures Game, essentially an All-Star game for prospects that pits international players against U.S. players which takes place during the Major League All-Star break. He won the MVP award in the game thanks to a go-ahead pinch-hit double in the seventh inning--the final inning as the game was shortened due to a 4-hour rain delay--that propelled the World team to victory.

Tosoni experienced a small drop in power the next year, but his season was dampened much more by a sore shoulder that eventually required surgery, causing him to miss the final few months of the year. Because of that, Tosoni made his first appearance with Rochester at the start of 2011, where he remained for just under a month. On April 28, Delmon Young was placed on the disabled list and Tosoni was called up to replace him on the active roster, despite a rough start to the year in Triple-A. He's been nothing short of awful in his two stints this year in Minnesota, with a .537 OPS, and hasn't been a whole lot better in his two tours of duty at Rochester.

That's unfortunate because, with Young traded and Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel set to become free agents, there figure to be openings on the roster for outfielders, and Tosoni is not putting a very strong claim in for the job. He shouldn't be eliminated from consideration altogether, but his performance in Triple-A and the Majors this season should make the Twins organization very cautious about penciling him into their future plans.

Who is Trevor Plouffe?

2011-08-27T00:05:00.000-04:00

Plouffe tags out Delmon Young as he tries to stretch a single into a double

Trevor Plouffe joined the Minnesota Twins organization in 2004 as a first-round draft choice out of a California high school. Chosen 20th overall, Plouffe was immediately anointed the future starting shortstop for the Twins. About a week later, he signed and reported to Elizabethton in the Appalachian League to begin his professional baseball career. In that first exposure he merely treaded water, posting a .719 OPS in 60 games with the E-Twins.

That was better than he would perform in his next two seasons, as unproductive full seasons at each level of A-ball in 2005 and 2006, respectively, had a lot of fans doubting Plouffe's chances of contributing at the big league level. He was plummeting down prospect lists, but his potential and his age kept him relevant. Still, he moved up another level, to Double-A, in 2007 and showed some improvement. His batting average jumped by about 30 points to .274, aided by a slightly lower strikeout rate, and his power saw an uptick from the lower levels. At the same time, he didn't get on base nearly as often because his walks dried up.

Minnesota decided his performance was good enough to warrant sending him to the Arizona Fall League that off-season, a league reserved for some of each team's more developed prospects. The experience didn't seem to change much, though, as Plouffe returned to Double-A in 2008 and almost perfectly replicated his batting line from the year before. Once again the Twins thought this was sufficient and promoted him to Triple-A at the tender age of 22. There, he showcased the same mediocre skill set, save for a lower BABIP which resulted in a lower OPS.

Plouffe spent almost all of the following two seasons at Rochester, demonstrating the same offensive ability each season. In 2008, his wOBA at Triple-A was .311; in 2009, .315; in 2010, .316. At this point, Twins fans thought it was pretty clear what they had in Plouffe, and they were fairly disappointed. Even though he played shortstop, the combination of his defense, which drew less-than-stellar reviews, and his below average offense seemed destined to prevent him from approaching the level expected when the Twins drafted him. His 44-at bat tryout with Minnesota in 2010 that resulted in a .460 OPS only solidified this fact.

That all changed in 2011, when Plouffe suddenly began to hit. Back in Rochester for the fourth straight year, his average climbed to .313, by far its highest point in his minor league career, but a higher-than-normal BABIP meant that it was probably bound to fall. More promising was the power explosion, as he smashed 15 homers in only 192 at bats and had an awesome .323 ISO. With that performance, he finally got an extended chance with the Twins, though he was initially forced into a utility role, playing positions he hadn't played at all in the minors.

Back at second base and then shortstop regularly with injuries to Alexi Casilla and then Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Plouffe has shown that he may yet have a future as a starter for the Twins. He unsurprisingly hasn't hit as well as he did at Triple-A earlier in the year, but he has done enough to put himself on the map for 2012 and beyond. Whether the part-season power surge in Rochester was for real or not, only time will tell, but it will likely determine whether Plouffe grabs and then holds onto a starting job.

Farewell Jim Thome

2011-08-26T08:22:00.003-04:00

The Minnesota Twins bid a fond farewell to Jim Thome last night as they traded him to the Indians for a player to be named later. In moving to Cleveland, Thome returns to his original club and a place he called home for 12 seasons, until he was 32 years old. That last season in Cleveland he hit a career-high 52 homers, led the league in walks, slugging percent, and OPS, and played 148 games at first base. The circumstances under which he comes back are quite different, as he's now an aging 40-year old who often struggles to play DH on consecutive days. But one trait remains the same, even if it's not as prolific as it was then: the man can hit the ball a long way.

And that's why Twins fans, myself included, are sorry to see him go. It's even more disappointing because a big motivating factor in moving Thome was to give him a chance, albeit small in this case, to obtain a World Series ring, only casting more light on the unsuccessful season Minnesota has had. Cleveland, while far ahead of the Twins, is still 6 1/2 games back of Detroit in the Central, so Thome will likely once more fail to get a ring. Many people are assuming that this will be the end for Thome since he reached the 600 home run plateau, but perhaps he'll give it one more shot in 2012.

But what's certain is that Thome's time with the Twins has come to an end. In 178 games with Minnesota, Thome batted 578 times and slugged 37 homers, hitting one out every 12.92 at bats. His 2010 season marked the best AB/HR ratio for any Twins player ever with at least 200 plate appearances, as he went deep once every 11 at bats. He rejuvenated his power stroke--not that it was ever meager--upon joining the Twins and immediately became a fan favorite. His signature moment from the 2010 season, a walk-off homer against his former team and the Twins' current rival, the Chicago White Sox, was matched this year when he went deep twice in one game to gain inductance into the 600 home run club.

All in all, the nearly two seasons Jim Thome spent in Minneapolis were fantastic ones, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a Twins fan anywhere who would disagree. Thome's presence in the lineup will be missed, but we wish him the best of luck in Cleveland!

NG5CYCHSQ9W8

The Most Embarrassing Series in a Long, Long Time

2011-08-25T17:35:00.002-04:00

Of the top of my head, it's the most embarrassing series I can remember. I wrote about this after Tuesday's game, and now I wish I hadn't, because I just have to do it all over again today. At that point, I figured the Twins would win at least one of the two remaining games, and probably put up multiple runs in each. But they did none of those things, so everything I wrote then is still applicable. Since I don't have the energy to write sensibly about such a deplorable series, I'm going to move to bullets.

The Orioles had allowed at least two runs in 62 consecutive games, dating back to June 10. The Twins scored one run in all four games of the series.
Baltimore had not allowed fewer than two runs in consecutive games since the first four games of the season.
In 12 of their last 13 games, the Orioles have allowed at least four runs, the same number the Twins scored in the entire series.
The Orioles had not swept a road series since that first series against Tampa Bay. They hadn't won a road series since mid-May. Heck, they hadn't won any series period since June 26 against Cincinnati, a stretch of 15 straight opponents.
The last time Baltimore swept a 4-game series on the road? That was back in July of 2010.
Those are all long streaks the Twins just broke. But what about the last time the Orioles allowed 4 or fewer runs in a 4-game series anywhere? I don't know, but I can tell you it hasn't happened this millennium, and they've only done it four times in a series of any length since 2000. And that's even including 2-game series.
The Orioles had 18 wins and 42 losses in road games when they arrived at Target Field. Then they won 4 in a row. That pretty much sums it up.

In other words, read the title of the post again.

Rooting for the Clothes - Episode 1: 8/24 Twins Update

2011-08-25T12:17:00.008-04:00

We've just finished our inaugural podcast, which is called Rooting for the Clothes. In it we discuss a wide range of topics relating to the Twins current situation, including the likelihood of the Twins trading Jim Thome, the chances that Deolis Guerra makes an appearance in Minnesota in September, and the spate of injuries that has plagued the Twins all season. It ran a little long at about 50 minutes--and as a result file size issues required that this episode be split into two parts--but in the future we aim to definitely cap it at 30 minutes. As with posting, we'll probably just do one whenever we feel like it, so there's no set schedule. This whole process is a trial-by-error, and we hope to improve things as we go along. For now, though, enjoy the first episode!

You can follow the podcast directly at this link. We also hope to have it available on iTunes shortly.

Part 1:

Podcast Powered By Podbean

Download this episode (right click and save)

Part 2:

Podcast Powered By Podbean

Download this episode (right click and save)

Scenes of a Season

2011-08-24T10:35:00.001-04:00

At this point, I'm at a loss. The team is just not this bad. Although they are still missing Denard Span and Alexi Casilla, the Twins are relatively healthy compared to the rest of the year. It doesn't make sense. The Orioles had a record of 47-77 before this series began and had just 18 wins in 60 road games, including just 4 in their last 23 chances. Baltimore hadn't won two consecutive road games since mid-May, which is also the last time they've won a road series. On top of that, they were riding a 5-game losing streak.

But the Twins of course bucked all the odds and lost each of the first two games, scoring just one run in each. In every single game since June 10, the Orioles have allowed at least two runs. And the last time they managed that feat in consecutive games was from April 1-4, when they started the season by giving up exactly one run in each of their first four games.

In case it wasn't clear, the Orioles pitching staff is terrible. They are the worst in the league in almost every category. Runs, earned runs, hits, home runs, average, WHIP, slugging percent, OPS, you name it--dead last in each. As a silver lining, at least the Twins had their chances in the first game. Yesterday, against Alfredo Simon, a man with a career ERA over 5.00, they could do nothing. Simon had easily his best start of his career, setting career highs in innings (8) and strikeouts (8), while still achieving career bests in hits allowed (3) and baserunners allowed (4).

It's just been that kind of season. I haven't even mentioned Brian Duensing's disastrous outing and I already have plenty of material for a post about the Twins' disappointing series as a microcosm of their season as a whole. However, a split of the series is still possible and, despite their showing in the first two games, these are still the Orioles, so let's see what the Twins can do tonight and tomorrow.

Orioles Take Opener

2011-08-23T00:06:00.000-04:00

As Justin Morneau and Tsuyoshi Nishioka were forced out of the lineup once again due to injuries, Michael Cuddyer returned for the opening game of the Twins' series against the Baltimore Orioles. Carl Pavano took the mound opposite Zach Britton, who was making his first start since coming off the disabled list. The Twins collected six hits and drew four walks while Britton was pitching, but managed to score just one run--on an RBI groundout by Joe Mauer--in those five innings. For the game, they went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position.

On the other side, Pavano surrendered four runs over seven innings, including serving up a home run to former Twin J.J. Hardy. With the Twins down 4-1 with two outs in the seventh and a runner on second, Ben Revere came to Pavano and the Twins' aid with an incredible over-the-shoulder catch as he slammed into the centerfield fence. That was just about the only highlight for the Twins as they dropped the opening game of the series 4-1 to the hapless Orioles. Cuddyer earned the game ball in his return with two doubles and a walk in four trips to the plate.

Jim Souhan and "Persistent Competence"

2011-08-22T00:52:00.001-04:00

Jim Souhan's article from last Friday has a main point that I can agree with, and which I think many people often overlook. He argues that "there is no more underappreciated commodity in sports than persistent competence." And he's right. So many times, baseball fans take a World Series-or-bust approach, when that is quite simply not realistic. Those fans are setting themselves up for disappointment. Only 2 of the 32 Major League teams make the World Series, and of course just one of those two can win the title. Expecting that in any one season is irrational, never mind expecting it every season.

That's why I'm always satisfied to the see the Twins contending. Anything they do on top of that is above and beyond. And it's not because they're a small payroll team, because they aren't anymore--it's the simple mathematics of it. For those couple days or weeks a year they're in the postseason I root as hard as anyone else, and get as disheartened by anyone else when they lose, but in looking back on the season I'm satisfied that they were playing meaningful games until the end of September and into October.

This year, they're not. And that's when you might especially realize how you took for granted their 'persistent competence', as Souhan puts it. Even then, it's important not to overreact. The Twins had won six division titles in nine seasons prior. Only 6 teams, 1 out of every 5, can win a division each year. Given those facts, I think it's important to take and step back in an underwhelming season such as this one. The manager and the coaches, the players and the training staff, the owners and the front office--let's cut them all some slack. Since 2001, the Twins have been competitive every year except for 2007.

That's not to say we should give them a free pass, or that we shouldn't be proactive, but that we should avoid making blanket criticisms based on this year while ignoring everything these people have done in past years. Souhan confirms this, explaining that "[GM Bill] Smith and his staff deserve another shot," because "a year ago, I thought Smith and Co. were on an impressive winning streak. Now they're on a losing streak." The fact that Smith was ever on a winning streak is something many fans disagree with, but the sentiment is sound. He also gives the same leeway to Ron Gardenhire.

But he forgets to employ this wide perspective when it comes to one person: Joe Mauer. Having famously bashed Mauer for succumbing to a made-up injury a couple years ago, this time Souhan labels Joe Mauer "the most overpaid singles hitter in baseball." Souhan takes this potshot on the basis of 273 plate appearances in an injury-riddled 2011 campaign, overreacting in the same situation in which he had previously urged patience with Smith and Gardenhire.

Instead of considering 2009, when Mauer hit 28 homers and slugged .587, or even 2010 when he clubbed 43 doubles, he focuses on a small sample in which just about everything has gone wrong for the Twins, and Mauer specifically. Ignoring over 3500 career plate appearances to the contrary, he falls prey to not appreciating the persistent competence--or, more accurately, persistent excellence--Mauer has produced. Although he has no trouble appreciating it in a team-wide sense, he can't seem to do the same with Mauer's performance.

I, for one, am disappointed to hear media members dismissively calling Mauer "the most overpaid singles hitter in baseball" because, following six amazing seasons, he's had a rough half-season in which he's admitted he's been limited by injuries. Of course, that sort of confession probably only increases Souhan's derision, as he's called Mauer's toughness into question in the past. Let's chalk this statement up to a person who simply doesn't understand Mauer's value, and not let this sentiment gain any steam among Twins fans. I'll enjoy watching Joe hit for the rest of 2011, and I fully expect a rebound in performance in 2012.

Final Composite Rankings

2011-08-21T06:00:00.001-04:00

For ease of reference, here are the final composite rankings of the 2011 Twins prospects, comprised of data from twelve different websites, both national and local. For more information on the rankings, go here.

Click to enlarge

For more information, check out the original sites where the rankings came from. Here they are again:

Local

Aaron Gleeman, AaronGleeman.com (40 prospects)

Fan Vote (run by roger13), Twinkie Town (50)

La Velle E. Neal III, Minneapolis Star Tribune (10)

Nick Nelson, Nick's Twins Blog (10)

Seth Stohs, Seth Speaks (51)

National

John Manuel, Baseball America (10)

John Sickels, Minor League Ball (22)

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (10)

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus (20)

Matt Hagen, The Hardball Times (10)

Reed MacPhail, FanGraphs (10)

Satchel Price, Beyond the Box Score (15)

Composite Top 10 Prospect Rankings

2011-08-20T06:00:00.001-04:00

We've finally arrived at the best of the best--or at least what we thought were the best of the best at the beginning of the season. A lot has changed since then so let's dig in and see where these prospects stand now.

Click to enlarge

Note: Statistics current through August 17.

10. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS

--Aaron Gleeman (4): "He's unlikely to have much pop... His defense and base-running will be key."

--Seth Stohs (15): "He'd probably be higher if he weren't 26... I think he will be solid all-around."
I probably don't need to tell you how Nishioka's done. His power is non-existent, he hasn't hit for average, he has no plate discipline to speak of, and he's looked lost in the field. Add it all up and Nishioka has been 69 percent worse than the average major league hitter and has been worth -1.3 wins when compared to a replacement-level player. He's still only 210 plate appearances into his American baseball career, so hopefully he can turn it around.
--Result: Graduated (Downgrade)

9. Adrian Salcedo, RHP

--Reed MacPhail (6): "The ability to miss bats, limit walks, and keep the ball on the ground is a great recipe for success, and at 6'4" 175, there is still projection remaining in Salcedo's frame."

--Mr. Smokum, fan (13): "Isn't it just as likely as not that Salcedo's career path follows Deolis Guerra's?"
Salcedo celebrated his 20th birthday shortly after the season started and has proceeded to put together a fine year at Low Single-A. His control has once again been impeccable, as he's issued only 25 walks in 127.1 innings, but his strikeouts have dropped precipitously, going from 8.86 per 9 innings at the rookie level to 5.94 per 9 this season. He's kept the ball in the ballpark and exhibited good enough control to still have a 3.04 ERA, which is almost equal to his 3.09 FIP. He was moved to the bullpen very recently, presumably to limit his innings, and has been excellent in his minimal time there.
--Result: No change

8. Oswaldo Arcia, OF

--Jonathan Mayo (5): "He's got power to all fields, though he'll have to swing and miss less if he wants to keep putting up those kinds of numbers."

--Aaron Gleeman (12): "History is filled with hitting prospects who knocked around rookie-ball pitching only to flame out against tougher competition... his 67 strikeouts in 259 at bats are a potential red flag."
Arcia dominated at Beloit during the month of April in his first taste of full-season baseball. In that small sample, he hit .352, walked a decent amount, and put up ridiculous power numbers with a .352 ISO. At the end of the month, though, he got injured and was placed on the disabled list. Despite the time off, Arcia was promoted to High Single-A upon being reinstated towards the end of July. At that level, his production has really fallen off, with his plate discipline looking particularly bad. His power has remained respectable, but not anywhere near where it was at Beloit in April or at Elizabethton in 2010.
Result: No change

7. Liam Hendriks, RHP

--John Sickels (5): "Another Twins guy with excellent command of solid stuff."

--Jonathan Mayo (10): "He's had some issues staying healthy, but when he's on he can throw four pitches for strikes."
Following a fantastic year split between two levels of A-ball, Hendriks moved up another level to Double-A. Through 90 innings there, he once more both demonstrated enviable command and maintained his strikeout rate from High-A. That resulted in Hendriks moving up to the highest level of the minors as a 22-year old, and he has held his own. His unsightly 6.34 ERA, caused by a 48.9 LOB %, has hidden some good peripherals. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 4.68/9 at Rochester, but his walk rate is back under 1 per 9 innings. Those will both probably rise as he throws more innings at the level, but all in all his performance this year has been quite encouraging.
--Result: Upgrade

6. Joe Benson, OF

--La Velle E. Neal III (3): "He showed in spring training that he can cover some ground in the outfield and he has a strong arm."

--John Sickels (11): "Good progress with his power development, strikeout rate remains scary."
Despite a very good season at New Britain in 2010, the Twins sent Benson back to the same level for 2011. In his second year at the level, he's done the same thing Chris Parmelee did in 2010, cutting down on his strikeouts--not by that much though--, raising his average, and sacrificing power as a result. He's still had a very solid season, as a result of a higher on base percentage making up for much of the loss in power. If he can maintain that, or find his power stroke again, he could be an option for the Twins quite soon.
--Result: Slight downgrade

5. Alex Wimmers, RHP

--John Sickels (2): "I think his stuff is underrated."

--Jonathan Mayo (8): "His changeup stands out as a plus pitch, he's got a decent curve, and his fastball has some life to it. He's not quite Gibson, but he could follow a somewhat similar trajectory."
Wimmers' first appearance of the year was an unmitigated disaster, a start in which he walked all 6 batters he faced. He went on the disabled list and finally resurfaced three months later with a rehab game with the GCL Twins, where he pitched 1 inning with just 1 walk. After that he was back with Ft. Myers and established that he hadn't completely forgotten how to pitch, although he has still walked more than 4.5 batters per 9 innings. He also just made his first start since returning, a decent 4 inning outing that he can hopefully build on.
--Result: Downgrade

4. Ben Revere, OF

--Nick Nelson (4): "The power might never come, but if he can keep getting on base at a solid clip while covering lots of ground in the outfield, he'll be a valuable big leaguer."

--Seth Stohs (8): "He can still improve his defense, throwing, and base running, things that will do him well over time."
Revere had not played in Triple-A before, despite a September call-up in 2010, so he reported there for the first time this Spring. After showcasing the exact same skill set he has at every level--ability to hit for a high average, steal bases, and run down lots of balls in the outfield with a noodle arm--for the first month of the season, Revere got his second opportunity to play in Minnesota. His average has been lower than expected, probably the result of a .279 BABIP, but otherwise he's performed similarly at the big league level, too. He's going to need that number to rise to be a starting-caliber player, even in centerfield.
--Result: Graduated (No change)

3. Miguel Sano, 3B/SS

--Kevin Goldstein (1): "He has the bat speed and hands to hit for average, as well as the plus-plus raw power that combine to make him a potential middle-of-the-order force."

--La Velle E. Neal III (4): "He's got work to do with strike zone judgment and really doesn't know what a good curveball is like."
The negatives have shown up, as Sano has struck out in over 27 percent of his at bats, but the power is only getting better, and he allegedly only turned 18 this summer. In 52 games at Elizabethton, he's hit 14 homers and put up a .320 ISO, both of which rank first in the Appalachian League. Obviously he's not polished yet, but the raw power makes it very easy to get carried away with his potential.
--Result: Slight upgrade

2. Aaron Hicks, OF

--Satchel Paige (1): "It seems like some are becoming unfairly impatient with Hicks' development. He's still an elite prospect with unreal upside, and he could be an impact player both in the field and at the plate."

--Matt Hagen (3): "[2010] was a solid season for Hicks, but everyone expects more from him, and for it to be coming at a level beyond Single-A."
After two full seasons at Low-A, Hicks joined the Ft. Myers Miracle for the 2011 season and has had his worst offensive season in the minor leagues. His average, which is the main contributing factor, is all the way down to .236. He's still showing impressive patience at the plate, with an excellent walk rate once again, and has posted moderate power numbers again this season. Much of his promise is still based on his tools, as the skills he's demonstrated to this point in his professional career are solid but not worthy of the reviews he has gotten from scouts.
--Result: Downgrade

1. Kyle Gibson, RHP

--Seth Stohs (1): "A ground ball machine when he is on, Gibson has four big league caliber pitches and the confidence to use them at any time. He is also a great competitor."

--Reed MacPhail (2): "With his struggles to miss bats on a consistent basis, Gibson strikes me as more of a solid starter than a front-of-the-rotation arm some are billing him as."
The composite top prospect in the Twins' system, Gibson was pushing to make an appearance with Minnesota this year before an elbow injury prematurely ended his season. He struggled in his final three starts, possibly due to the injury, but before that he had struck out more than a batter an inning in 83.1 innings at Rochester. He had also only issued 19 walks, giving him a fantastic K/BB ratio. That made the news that he will likely require Tommy John surgery all the more disappointing, as that would force him out to miss the 2012 season. Perhaps rehab will fix what ails them, but more likely than not Gibson will be out of action for all of next season.
--Result: Downgrade

Well, that's the end of my review of the top 40 prospects as determined by the rankings comprised of opinions from 12 different websites. I hope you learned a lot about the players who make up Minnesota's future, because I certainly did. And be sure to check out the opinions from the sites that provided the information, as they are all more knowledgeable about the prospects than I am.

**Same thing as Alex Burnett. I assume that Nishioka was only included on 3 lists because the other authors either made their lists before he was signed or didn't consider him a prospect. Thus he was not penalized for being absent from the other lists.

Composite Prospect Rankings, #20-#11

2011-08-19T06:00:00.002-04:00

Now we're getting to some exciting players, as we move to those prospects ranked from 20 to 11.

Click to enlarge

Note: Statistics current through August 17.

20. Pat Dean, LHP
--Kevin Goldstein (15): "A classic Twins-style strike-thrower, equipped with more command than stuff."
--b1, fan (28): "If Dean gets promoted quickly then next year [2011] he'll be ranked higher."
Dean opened the season on the disabled list and remained there until mid-May. Upon returning, he was assigned to Low-A, one level above where he spent the 2011 season. He continued to demonstrate precise control, walking 1.84 batter per 9 innings, and missed enough bats to be promising. After making 8 starts there, and allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of them, Dean moved up to Ft. Myers. He's had a much tougher go of it there, as his control, while still solid, hasn't made up for a big drop in strikeouts. His 6.70 ERA makes it seem worse than it is, but he certainly hasn't been good in his 9 starts at High-A.
--Result: Slight downgrade

19. Eddie Rosario, OF
--John Sickels (16): "Sleeper outfielder from '10 draft, speed, on-base skills, some power potential."
--Aaron Gleeman (26): "He's a long way from the majors and may not even get his first crack at full-season competition until 2012."
The 19-year old has wound up in short-season ball again this year, playing for Elizabethton in the Appalachian League. He's certainly built on his solid performance in the Gulf Coast League in 2010, though, hitting for average (.301) and power (.551 slugging). He is striking out more, albeit not at a horrible rate, and isn't walking a whole lot, but the .250 ISO helps to overshadow that. In all, Rosario's is hitting 40 % better than the league average, and has also been effective on the basepaths, stealing bases on 14 of 18 attempts.
--Result: Upgrade

18. Alex Burnett, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (18): "Capable of becoming a key component of the Twins' bullpen long term."
Outside of two insignificant stints with Rochester in April this year, Burnett has spent all his time in Minnesota. Unfortunately, he hasn't really built on his experience with the Twins in 2010. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP aren't much better, if at all, than they were last year, and his peripheral statistics don't suggest much improvement either. He could certainly still develop, but as of now it doesn't look like he will become a true late-inning option for the Twins.
--Result: Graduated (Downgrade)

17. Chris Parmelee, 1B
--Seth Stohs (12): "Cut down strikeouts and hit for average in 2010, but the power is still there."
--Aaron Gleeman (19): "As his contact and average increased Parmelee's power vanished... if Parmelee can't rediscover his power everything else will be a moot point."
Parmelee has repeated AA this year, but has vastly improved on his 2010 showing. He continued to use the new approach he and the Twins developed last year, concentrating on striking out less and hitting for a higher average. He did both of those things but also saw a rebound in his walk rate and power, which both rose back within the vicinity of what they were in past years, albeit in a more hitter-friendly environment. He'll probably still need to take another step up with his power, but this was a good sign.
--Slight upgrade

16. Manuel Soliman, RHP
--Kevin Goldstein (14): "A converted infielder with arm strength and improving secondary stuff, he could move up after his full-season debut."
--Aaron Gleeman (21): "He's a long way from way from potentially entering the Twins' plans and still needs plenty of refinement."
Soliman's first time in full-season ball has had its positives and negatives. He's not getting as many strikeouts, but still has a good amount with a rate of 8.31 K/9. His walk rate, up to 3.51 BB/9, is also a concern, but it's not terrible. The biggest problem is that he's surrendered 16 home runs in 118 innings, a rate of 1.22 per 9 innings. It's hard to say whether that's bad luck or not without knowing his batted ball profile, but regardless it needs to come down. If that happens, his numbers could look much better across the board.
--Result: No change

15. Billy Bullock, RHP
--John Sickels (8): "Could be a huge bullpen force if the command sharpens up a bit more."
--Seth Stohs (23): "The only concern is how quickly his walk rate has [risen] at each level the past two years."
Before the start of the 2011 season, Bullock was traded to the Braves so the Twins could keep Rule V pick Scott Diamond.
--Result: Traded

14. Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
--Jonathan Mayo (9): "He's got a nasty hard sinker that generates a ton of groundballs."
--Aaron Gleeman (17): "He's been dominant at times and awful at others, but the overall performance is mediocre... Gutierrez's upside is based more on the praise for his "power sinker" than his actual performance."
For the last couple seasons, Gutierrez's statistics have not quite kept up with his prospect status. In 2011 he was finally shifted to the bullpen full time after being jerked around between starter and reliever since he was drafted. Probably not coincidentally, his strikeout rate has climbed to the highest it has been at any point in the minors, though at 7.26 K/9 it's still not particularly noteworthy. Combined with giving up just one homer in over 50 innings, something that may not be far off from his true talent given his ground-balling tendencies, he's had a solid year at Rochester.
--Result: No change

13. David Bromberg, RHP
--Nick Nelson (6): "He lacks huge upside, but has a big curveball and profiles as a better version of Jeff Manship."
--Kevin Goldstein (17): "He's nearly big-league ready... but scouts see nothing special in him."
A broken arm early in the season has really set Bromberg back to this point. In four starts at Double-A prior to the injury Bromberg had pitched solidly, perhaps readying himself to return to Triple-A, where he ended the 2010 season. Instead he broke his arm and required surgery, and didn't return to the mound until July. After a couple mediocre outings with the GCL Twins he was back in New Britain. He's struggled since then, not lasting more than 4 innings in any of his four starts and not exhibiting his normally good control with 11 walks in 14.2 innings.
--Result: Downgrade

12. Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF
--Matt Hagen (8): "Young, high-upside position player... His bat is quick and he looks and carries himself like an athlete."
--Seth Stohs (17): "He's a five-tool talent... Long ways to go, but huge upside."
The 18-year old German has played at Elizabethton for all of 2011 after spending 2010 in the Gulf Coast League. His performances have been pretty similar, though his average is down while his walks and strikeouts are up this year. He's also played almost exclusively left field with the E-Twins after bouncing between all three outfield positions in 2010. As he's still so young, he's got plenty of time to develop, making it tough to evaluate him solely on his statistics.
--Result: No change

11. Angel Morales, OF
--Seth Stohs (7): "Although the strikeouts are still high, his approach at the plate is terrific... No one questions his power potential."
--John Sickels (14): "Great tools, high strikeout rate, high risk/high reward guy."
On the disabled list following elbow surgery to start the year, Morales played in his first game of 2011 in mid-July. After a brief rehab stint with the GCL Twins, Morales reported to High-A, where he spent the second half of 2011. His strikeout rate continues to be very worrisome, but more importantly his power has dissipated significantly in his month with Ft. Myers. Hopefully once he fully works back from the elbow injury it will return.
--Result: Slight downgrade

**Burnett was only ranked on one list, but I have to assume that was because the other list-makers determined he had exhausted his prospect eligibility. For that reason, he's not downgraded for only being on one list.

Composite Prospect Rankings, #30-#21

2011-08-18T10:35:00.002-04:00

I'll continue examining Minnesota's prospects, today delving into those ranked from 21 to 30.

Click to enlarge

30. Anthony Slama, RHP
--roger13 (23): "One of minor league baseball's top relievers throughout his career."
--Seth Stohs (33.5): "Reliever with [a] tremendous K-rate...should be in the Twins bullpen throughout 2011."
Slama struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings and allowed opponents to hit .200 or under again at Triple-A. He's done that at every level in every year of his minor league career. Ho hum. He got just 2.1 innings with the Twins this year at the beginning of June, as he was relegated to overpowering minor league hitters again. He even dropped his walk rate a little there, but no matter. Now he's dealing with an elbow injury, but at least it looks like he will avoid Tommy John surgery. Through no fault of his own he will fall on prospect lists as he is another year older.
--Result: Downgrade

29. Daniel Ortiz, OF
--Seth Stohs (19): "My choice for breakout hitter of the 2011 Twins minor league season."
--cmathewson, fan (36): "Skeptical about E-Town numbers, particularly power numbers."
A diminutive outfielder, Ortiz is getting his first shot at full-season competition this year. His power numbers have not been quite as good, but he's still accumulated 30 doubles and 10 homers, resulting in a .167 ISO. He's also showed improved plate discipline, upping his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeouts. It adds up to a performance that has been slightly above average in the Midwest League.
--Result: No change

28. Kane Holbrooks, RHP
--John Sickels (19): "Overlooked... Looks like a sleeper to me."
--Aaron Gleeman (27): "To stick as a starter Holbrooks needs to develop his off speed offerings."
Holbrooks made 7 starts at Ft. Myers last year to end the season, and even started one game with New Britain, but he returned to Ft. Myers this season as a 24-year old. His numbers have not been as good either, as he has a pathetic strikeout rate of 4.48 batters per 9 innings, a full 3 K/9 lower than last year at the same level. He was recently placed on the restricted list for reasons I don't know and hasn't pitched since July 17.
--Result: Downgrade

27. Bruce Pugh, RHP
--John Sickels (21): "Live arm, strikes people out, could surprise if his command sharpens up."
--DJL44, fan (34): "Has a live arm but a 4 ERA in Ft. Myers isn't impressive."
After starting at High-A last season and throwing over 100 innings there, Pugh began the season as a reliever at the same level. With 27 strikeouts and 6 walks in 24.1 innings, Pugh continued striking out lots of hitters while also harnessing his control. Upon being promoted to Double-A, though, he struggled mightily, imploding with 8 runs allowed in his first outing (1.1 IP). In total, he surrendered 16 hits, 16 runs, and 15 walks in 16 innings. He was then demoted back to Ft. Myers, where he's again been very good, striking out 28 against 7 walks in 19.1 IP.
--Result: Downgrade

26. Tom Stuifbergen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (20): "Raw stuff isn't overpowering, but Stuifbergen throws strikes, misses a fair number of bats, and induces grounders in bunches."
--Seth Stohs (30): "Will move up this list if he is healthy in 2010."
Stuifbergen has stayed healthy this season except for a very brief trip to the disabled list at the end of April, pitching 111 innings for Ft. Myers to this point. He's given up a ton of hits in that time and has seen a precipitous drop in his strikeout rate, but at least has maintained his pinpoint control, walking only 1.46 hitters per 9 innings. His ERA is a misleading 4.54, as his BABIP and LOB% indicate he is suffering from bad luck. Still, he's probably going to have to rediscover his strikeout rate to remain relevant.
--Result: Slight downgrade

24 (tie). Trevor Plouffe, SS
--Jon Kammerer, fan (21): "At least a utility guy with the potential to be an average regular if he can make more contact or increase his power."
--Aaron Gleeman (32): "It's pretty safe to conclude that Plouffe simply can't hit... A career as a utility man looks like his most realistic upside."
Plouffe got a cup of coffee with Minnesota in 2010, but found himself at Triple-A again in 2011. All of a sudden, though, he started to hit. In just 220 plate appearances, he had 15 home runs and 29 total extra base hits, good for a .323 ISO, which was nearly twice as high as in any previous season. In addition, he began walking a little more and hit for a high average, something he had never done before. Of course he is now 25 years old and has spent four seasons at AAA, casting some negative spin on his performance. His audition in the big leagues has predictably been less impressive, and his defense will prove key to making him a useful player.
--Result: Graduated (Upgrade)

24 (tie). Deolis Guerra, RHP
--Seth Stohs (24): "Has a tremendous changeup and he's got great makeup. 2011 is a big year for him as it is his final option season."
--Aaron Gleeman (34): "Struggled to maintain peak velocity and and ceased being a ground-baller. He's still young, but that's about all he has left in his favor."
At New Britain for the third consecutive season, Guerra once again failed to live up to his promise as a starting pitcher. For the first two months of the season, Guerra floundered in the rotation, allowing 49 runs (43 earned) in 43 innings with a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. At that point the Twins shifted him to the bullpen, where's he's been very effective. He's thrown 43 innings in that role, punching out 55 batters and 5 for every walk, and allowed only 16 runs (14 earned). Somehow still just 22 years old, it's good to see Guerra finally pitching well in any capacity.
--Result: Upgrade

23. Niko Goodrum, IF/OF
--Kevin Goldstein (16): "A fantastic up-the-middle athlete... he was lost with the bat after signing."
--roger13 (30): "Tremendous athlete who struggled in his adjustment to professional baseball."
Despite hitting .161 with a .414 OPS in 36 games with the GCL Twins in 2010, Goodrum moved up to rookie-level Elizabethton this year. He hasn't been as bad as last year (how could he be?), but his batting average is still just .239. His strikeout rate is also high, at 24 %, and his ISO is an unimpressive .094. If you're looking for positives I suppose they're that that offensive performance is only 13% below average in the Appalachian League and that he's 6-for-7 stealing bases.
--Result: Slight downgrade

22. Rene Tosoni, OF
--Aaron Gleeman (14): "Has consistently been above average at each stop without really flashing any standout skills... could be in line to replace Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer in 2012."
--Seth Stohs (32): "Solid all-around player. If healthy, he will move up quickly."
In his first taste of Triple-A Tosoni has disappointed. Just as he was consistently solid across the board at the other levels, he has been consistently below average in every category with Rochester. He's walking less, showing less power, and hitting for a lower average. Despite that, he's gotten a couple calls to the big leagues where he's almost exactly duplicated his AAA performance. He still has a chance to make a case for a spot on the big league roster next season with a month and a half left in this season.
--Downgrade

21. B.J. Hermsen, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (22): "He makes up for [a] lack of missed bats with pinpoint control and a fair number of ground balls."
--cmathewson, fan (27): "A marginal prospect in my book. He never throws harder than 88 with little movement."
Hermsen spent most of the 2011 season at Beloit, essentially replicating his numbers from 2010. In 124.2 innings, his FIP was exactly the same (3.76) while his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 were very similar. He was recently promoted to High-A Ft. Myers where he's made two starts. The early returns were good, but it's much too soon to make any sort of judgment on his performance there.
--Slight upgrade

Check back tomorrow for the next installment!

*Slama is ranked 33.5 because Seth originally left him out altogether by accident. Rather than move every player down one, he put Slama at 33.5

Composite Prospect Rankings, #40-#31

2011-08-17T13:50:00.003-04:00

As I described yesterday, I'll be taking a look at the Twins' prospects' performance this year, and how it's affected their status from the beginning of the year. Today I'll explore prospects 40 through 31.

The number in parentheses is where that person ranked the player. Click the number for the link to the quote provided. Keep in mind that all quotes were written at some point during the off-season.

Click to enlarge

40. Steve Singleton, 2B
--Seth Stohs (27): "Good D at 2B... If needed today, he could perform well enough to not hurt the team at all."
--DJL44, fan (37): ".750 OPS at AA is nothing special. If he was above .800 in AAA I could see him as a prospect."
Assigned to AA for a third season, Singleton did hit a little better, nearing the .800 mark in OPS. Upon a promotion to Rochester, however, he struggled, getting on base under 30 percent of the time and hitting doubles at a much lower rate than in AA, signifying a loss of power too. Because of those numbers, and some off-the-field issues, Singleton was released a month ago on July 17th. He signed a minor league contract with Philadelphia.
--Result: Released

39. Danny Rams, C/1B
--roger13 (33): "Power-hitting catcher...took a big step forward last year when nearly half of his hits went for extra bases."
--Aaron Gleeman (37): "He really hasn't developed one bit. He still swings at everything, still strikes out a ton, and still has people questioning whether he can remain a catcher long term."
After playing the last season-and-a-half with Beloit, Rams moved up to High-A Ft. Myers to start the 2011 season. Once more, he's shown little ability to adjust his approach, as he has made only very modest improvement to his plate discipline. His strikeout rate of 29 percent is down slightly from last year, while his walk rate is up slightly to over 8 percent. These small gains are easily outweighed by the fact that his power has dropped off significantly, with his slugging down to .366 and his ISO down 75 points to .131.
--Result: Downgrade

38. Bobby Lanigan, RHP
--Seth Stohs (20): "Has a good fastball and all reports indicate he has a terrific slider. To me, he could be a very successful reliever."
--cmathewson, fan (41): "The jury is out as to whether he can become a good reliever in the majors."
Lanigan returned to AA after making 8 starts there in 2010. He's continued to start, throwing almost 130 innings over 23 games. His walk rate is very solid, but it's actually the highest it's ever been, and other than that he hasn't shown anything to get excited about. His piddly strikeout rate of 5.6/9 and the 160 hits allowed in 129.1 innings have led to a less-than-stellar 4.73 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Perhaps he has a chance as a reliever, but he doesn't appear to have a future as a big league starter.
--Result: Downgrade

37. Martire Garcia, LHP
--Seth Stohs (29): "Throws hard, good movement. Young."
--Aaron Gleeman (31): "He's one of the leading candidates to make a big jump up this list in 2012...for now Garcia's rank is on the conservative side and based more on his potential than actual performance."
The owner of some big strikeout rates in previous years, Garcia's rate went down a little at Beloit this season, but was still over one per inning. The big problem was his control, which he'd had issues with before. It fell apart completely this season, as he walked 5 men in his first outing, his only start, and finished with 25 walks in 21 innings spread over 14 games. He pitched in his last game on May 21st, after which he was released.
--Result: Released

36. Kyle Waldrop, RHP
--roger13 (15): "A candidate to be part of the Twins bullpen at some time next year [2011]."
--Seth Stohs (50): "Throws strikes and gets ground balls."
Waldrop has spent the 2011 season at AAA, pitching fairly similarly to the way he did at the same level in 2010. His strikeout rate has dipped from a little over 6 K/9 to just over 5 K/9, but his walk rate remains very good, hovering around 2 BB/ 9. The fact that his 70 innings of relief this season haven't been any better than last season isn't a good sign, but Waldrop didn't appear as if he would be a difference maker in the bullpen anyways. He could still get a call-up in September, but it's looking less likely that he'll be a part of the Twins future.
--Result: Slight downgrade

35. James Beresford, SS
--Aaron Gleeman (24): "Slowly but surely adding some power at the plate to go along with what has always been an outstanding glove."
--b1, fan (39): "ZERO power. Unless he put[s] on some size, he'll be a back-up."
The 22-year old moved up to Ft. Myers to open the season and has struggled there. The power he was adding disappeared, as his ISO dropped from an ugly .065 in 2010 to a totally negligible .031. He's continued to exhibit good bat control, striking out infrequently, but a .328 OBP and .303 SLG at High-A aren't encouraging. He's also been quite inefficient on the basepaths, swiping 41 bases on 78 attempts in his minor league career, and 4 of 10 this year.
--Result: Downgrade

34. Nate Roberts, OF
--John Sickels (17): "Another '10 draft sleeper. Solid tools and consistent production."
--Aaron Gleeman (30): "Dominating in a lower-level college conference and then beating up on rookie-ball pitchers hardly guarantees future success."
Roberts has followed up his excellent season at Rookie-ball with a good season at Beloit. His power has fallen, but his ISO is a still-respectable .123. His biggest asset is his on-base percent, which for the second straight season is at least .440, despite a decent-but-not-great walk rate of 9.6 %. What's buoyed his OBP are the 27 occasions on which he's been hit by a pitch in just 260 plate appearances. He showed a similar ability (yes, ability) in college, so if he can maintain it, he will be significantly more valuable.
--Result: Slight upgrade

33. Luke Hughes, IF
--roger13 (25): "Has one of the more exciting right-handed bats in the organization."
--Seth Stohs (35): "OK at Rochester, but again was injured... Potential big league super utility bat and pinch hitter."
Not only has Hughes has managed to stay healthy this year, he's spent a majority of it with the big league club. His performance, however, hasn't been all that good. His .274 wOBA certainly didn't play at first base, the position he played the most, and was only tolerable at second base because of the Twins' lack of other options. Back in AAA now, his power has returned and he's cut down on his strikeouts, but he's been held back by an unlucky BABIP (.250). Although he no longer qualifies as a prospect and didn't look good in the majors, Hughes remains one of the few players in the high minors of the Twins system with any semblance of power potential.
--Result: Graduated (Slight downgrade)

32. Dakota Watts, RHP
--Aaron Gleeman (29): "Projects as a potential late-inning reliever if things break right... One of the rare pitching prospects not to fit the Twins' preferred mold."
--Seth Stohs (41): "Some control issues, but the guy throws consistently in the upper 90s."
To this point in the 2011 season, things have not broken right. Watts returned to High-A Ft. Myers to begin the year, and pitched significantly worse. His strikeout rate (6.44) was well below his previous low for any stretch of time and his walk rate remained about the same as in 2010. Still, after 29.1 mediocre innings, Watts was promoted to New Britain at the end of June. His strikeouts have rebounded somewhat, but remain lower than in any other season, and his walks have jumped back up to over 5 per 9 innings. As a result, he's allowed 28 runs (24 earned) in 24 innings at AA.
--Result: Downgrade

31. Scott Diamond, LHP
--cmathewson, fan (26): "He could be another [Craig] Breslow... Doesn't throw hard but gets a lot of strikeouts."
--Aaron Gleeman (36): "His strikeout and walk rates have been mediocre... He could begin 2011 in a long relief role [with the Twins]."
Diamond's unsightly 4-13 record and 5.42 ERA in Triple-A this season are very misleading. While he hasn't been a star, his peripherals suggest that he has pitched solidly and merely been the victim of some bad luck. He's striking out more batters than last year with the Braves' AAA affiliate, and his strikeout-to-walk rate is up also, though they could still be described as mediocre. His FIP of 3.74 more accurately reflects Diamond's performance in 2011, which isn't far off from his career minor league numbers.
--Result: No change

That's all for today! Keep coming back to read the rest.

An Update on the Twins Prospects

2011-08-17T00:56:00.004-04:00

With the Twins just having signed their top three picks from the 2011 draft, among many others, at the deadline, today seems like an appropriate time to review their minor league system as a whole. What I've done here is comb through 12 different sets of rankings of the Twins prospects prior to the 2011 season, from both national writers and Twins writers, in order to come up with a composite ranking. I did this, rather than form my own list, because I quite honestly don't know nearly as much about these minor league players as these other writers.

For each of the top 40 prospects, I offered short quotes from both the high and low ranker to gain insight into their reasoning, in addition to examining the impact of their performance so far this season on their prospect status. In cases where the high and/or low ranker didn't provide an explanation, I gave arguments from other writers. Also, players who have moved down are not necessarily moving down in the rankings, and vice versa, as that depends a lot on how other players around them are doing. And it depends on how you feel about Levi Michael, Travis Harrison, Hudson Boyd, and the rest of Minnesota's 2011 draft class.

First, here's the breakdown of which prospect lists I used:

Local
Aaron Gleeman, AaronGleeman.com (40 prospects)
Fan Vote (run by roger13), Twinkie Town (50)
La Velle E. Neal III, Minneapolis Star Tribune (10)
Nick Nelson, Nick's Twins Blog (10)
Seth Stohs, Seth Speaks (51)

National
John Manuel, Baseball America (10)
John Sickels, Minor League Ball (22)
Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (10)
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus (20)
Matt Hagen, The Hardball Times (10)
Reed MacPhail, FanGraphs (10)
Satchel Price, Beyond the Box Score (15)

And for today I'll just reveal those guys who were outside the top 40 in the composite rankings, but did appear on at least one list.

Click to enlarge

As you may notice, the list is not in order of average rank. That is on purpose, as compiling a sensible composite ranking is not as simple as you might think since many lists rank a different number of prospects and not every prospect appears on every list. For instance, Chris Herrmann averages a rank of 37 for the one list (Seth Stohs') that he is on, while Evan Bigley averages a lesser 44. However, Bigley is on Twinkie Town's list in addition to Seth's, so you have to consider that Twinkie Town essentially rated Chris Hermann the 51st best prospect at best by leaving him out of their top 50. The exact calculation of the order was a little confusing because of some problems this caused; if you want the full explanation, please ask. It's a little wordy so I'm leaving it out of the post.

The top 40, with analysis as described above, will be revealed in the coming week.

600!

2011-08-15T22:40:00.003-04:00

Congratulations to Jim Thome for hitting his 600th career home run off of Daniel Schlereth in the 7th inning of last night's game in Detroit. It was his second of the night, as he had already homered the inning before off of Rick Porcello. He is the eighth player ever to hit 600 home runs, joining Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., and Sammy Sosa.

Thome's milestone home run was a three-run blast that stretched the Twins' lead to 9-5. They eventually won the game 9-6 on the back of Thome's 5 RBIs.

The Delmon Young Experiment Ends

2011-08-15T16:02:00.008-04:00

Twins fans will never have to watch Delmon Young do this to their team ever again

The Twins have just sent Delmon Young to a divisional rival, Detroit, in return for an uninspiring package. The Tigers currently have Brennan Boesch, Austin Jackson, and Magglio Ordonez in the outfield, and the word is that Ordonez is the one most likely to lose playing time. Ordonez has been quite underwhelming this season, as he currently holds a triple slash of .223/.280/.295, but Young hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire either.

In return, the Twins receive minor league left-hander Cole Nelson and a player to be named later. Nelson stands 6-7 and weighs 240 pounds, so he's a highly desirable commodity: a projectable left-handed pitcher. On the other hand, he just hasn't pitched all that well to this point. I couldn't find him listed on any prospect lists coming into the year, with the most expansive ones I looked at being Bless You Boys' ranking of the top 30 Tiger farmhands and John Sickels' top 20 (plus others under consideration).

Cole Nelson

Nelson grew up in Edina, Minnesota before going to college at Auburn. The Tigers selected him in the 10th round of the 2010 draft, and he split that season between the Rookie and High-A levels, throwing just 27.1 innings. 2011 has been his first full season, and he's spent it all at high Single-A. He's managed just a 4.87 ERA and an ugly 1.64 WHIP, along with a mediocre 87-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 105.1 innings. All in all Nelson doesn't seem like he's destined to pitch in the big leagues, although his size and handedness keep him relevant.

It's a pretty disappointing return for Delmon Young. Given that he would command a salary at least in the $6 million range next year, the Twins would be understandably hesitant about tendering him a contract. Operating under that assumption, it makes sense that Minnesota would want to deal him now, rather than losing him for nothing in the offseason. However, one would have hoped that the Twins could have gotten more than a marginal prospect and a player to be named later, who's likely even less of a prospect, for a player with Young's pedigree and talent who's still only 25 years old.

Of course Young has actually played horribly, save a power-infused 2010 season. Other than that he's put together three awful seasons with the Twins, butchering plays in left field, rarely getting on base, and displaying little of the power he was supposed to have. As it stands the Twins gave up a #2 pitcher, a starting shortstop, and a minor league pitcher for two other non-contributors and the privilege to completely overpay Young for a couple seasons. And now they've traded Young for two marginal prospects at best. I honestly can't say what I thought about the original trade, since I didn't write anything about it and I don't remember, but in hindsight it's obvious that it did not work out in the Twins' favor.

Young will be around the Twins for a little longer, though, as Minnesota starts a series with Detroit tonight. Rene Tosoni has been recalled to take Young's spot on the roster.

Lotsa Hot Dogs

2011-08-13T01:15:00.005-04:00

So in perusing old blog entries, I came across my post about last year's hot dog eating contest, and I realized I didn't enlighten our readers about the competition from this year. And, considering that anyone reading this was likely in the contest, you probably are interested in it.

The 2011 hot dog competition was held in Northeast D.C. and featured 4 competitors and one spectator/photographer, Evan Egri. Despite my best efforts, I could not convince Evan Egri, a vegetarian of about fifteen years, to participate. So it was the four of us, Twin #2, Dallas E., Buzz B, and myself, competing for the title of 2011 Family & Friends Hebrew National Hot Dog Eating Contest champion.

The dogs were cooked and ready to go, the timer was set, and the participants were hungry--it was time to start. From the opening moment, it was clear who was, again, taking it most seriously. I had made a point to not eat since the night before, and to drink plenty of water to expand my stomach. In the meantime, the other participants gorged themselves on Fourth of July waffles that morning, which admittedly looked quite delicious.

Therefore, it was no surprise when I claimed victory in the fourth annual competition. I inhaled a record 6 1/8 hot dogs and buns, while Twin #2 placed second with 5 1/4. Although that may seem close, the contest was never really in doubt as I took an early lead and held on to it throughout. Buzz B did not put in much effort whatsoever, and came in a distant third with 2 1/8 hot dogs and buns. Buzz B was followed by Dallas E., who put forth a similarly disappointing effort and came in fourth with only 2.

I'm looking forward to next year already.

Who is Jason Repko?

2011-08-13T00:39:00.000-04:00

Repko makes a sliding catch in foul territory

Jason Repko is essentially the epitome of a fourth outfielder. Drafted late in the first round back in 1999 by the Los Angeles Dodgers, he joined the Twins at the beginning of the 2010 season. He had spent the previous five seasons moving between Los Angeles and Las Vegas, the Dodgers' Triple-A club. He put up promising numbers there, but by the end of his time in Los Angeles he was doing it as a 28-year old outfielder with 323 games of experience at Triple-A.

2005 was the only season that Repko got remotely regular playing time in the major leagues, as he appeared in 129 and garnered over 300 plate appearances. His performance was uninspiring, however, resulting in reduced playing time in 2006, when he appeared in only 69 games and half as many plate appearances. In those two seasons, though, he was in Triple-A for just 17 games, meaning he had the semblance of being a regular in a backup outfield position in the majors.

But in Spring Training of 2007 Repko collided with Rafael Furcal and tore his hamstring, an injury that sidelined him for the entire season. After that lost season the tables turned, as Repko found himself playing mostly in Triple-A with an occasional call-up to fill in at the big league level. In 2008 that was a five-day stretch at the beginning of July and then again in September when rosters expanded; in 2009, just an appearance in September in which he totaled 7 plate appearances.

In the two years after his serious injury, Repko played in just 32 games with the Dodgers, amassing an even more meager 27 plate appearances. Having exhausted his minor league options, Repko's last chance with Los Angeles was to make the big league team out of Spring Training in 2010. Instead he was released by the Dodgers, and the Twins signed him to a minor league contract within the week.

Repko was assigned to Rochester, Minnesota's Triple-A affiliate, and stayed there for the first two and a half months of the season. Since his call-up on June 24th of that year, though, he has remained on the Major League roster; outside of a rehab assignment in May of 2011, Repko has not played in the minors. But he hasn't been anything close to a regular player in Minnesota either, playing in about half of the team games in that span, and many of them only as a late-inning defensive replacement.

At this point in his career, Repko has proven that's exactly what his role should be. While he's been able to post nice totals in Triple-A, he's now 30 years old and has little chance of improving on his bland offensive performance in the major leagues. He can, however, play all three outfield positions at least adequately, and does have more life in his bat than notable backups like Matt Tolbert and Drew Butera. Repko doesn't offer anything special, but he is a totally serviceable fourth outfielder who has done a fine job in that role over the past two seasons.

Who is Matt Tolbert?

2011-08-12T16:54:00.002-04:00

Tolbert completes a double play off the bat of Orlando Cabrera

Matt Tolbert came to Minnesota in the 16th round of the 2004 draft, signed quickly, and immediately reported to rookie-level Elizabethton. He hit well there, but considering he was a 22-year old with four years of college experience, the performance was not particularly impressive and he was mostly a non-factor as a prospect. Following that, he skipped low Single-A and spent the 2005 season at high Single-A Fort Myers. There, his numbers dropped precipitously, as his OPS fell nearly .200 points, from .876 to .691.

He moved up one level each of the next two years, and better numbers in 2007 at Triple-A finally got him on the cusp of the prospect map. He grabbed the last spot in Aaron Gleeman's ranking of the top 40 Twins prospects, as his age--almost 26--and very minor upside kept him from rating any higher. Nonetheless, he made the big league roster out of Spring Training, splitting time between three positions and starting consistently. A hot start in the team's first twenty games, which saw him hit .400 with a .905 OPS, got many Twins fans unreasonably excited. When he broke his thumb on May 15th, his average was down to .265 and his OPS to .644, but the hot start still had a lot of fans thinking they'd lost a key piece of the lineup.

By the time he had recovered from his injury, he had lost his roster spot because of Alexi Casilla's improved performance. Even when Casilla himself went down with an injury, other options had emerged and Tolbert still was not recalled; he only returned to Minnesota once rosters expanded in September. That's how Tolbert would spend the next few seasons, bouncing between Triple-A and the Majors, filling in for injured starters, playing in a utility role, and starting when no better options presented themselves.

In general, Tolbert can aptly be described as a poor man's Nick Punto. An infamous Twins player who signed with St. Louis after the 2010 season, Punto's presence was as divisive an issue among Twins fans as you'll find. Many people absolutely despised him because of his terrible hitting, but others looked past it and saw the value in playing multiple positions defensively and playing them well. Beyond that, Ron Gardenhire's affinity for the light-hitting infielder irked many fans, as he always found a place for him in the lineup, often over better, more talented players.

What's kept Tolbert from completely repeating that pattern is the last point: he has yet to make his way into the lineup on a regular basis. Although he's spent stretches of time in the starting lineup, it's always been in place of an injured player. Tolbert can play second base, shortstop, and third base, just as Punto did, filling in when the regular starters are dinged up or need a day off. But he hasn't hit even as well as Punto and, while he's a quality fielder, doesn't have quite the glove that Punto did. For those reasons, he shouldn't ever be considered as a starter in any sort of long-term situation, but he is a decent option in his current role as a utility infielder.

Who is Drew Butera?

2011-08-11T23:58:00.000-04:00

Butera reacts after reaching into the stands to make a great catch for the final out of a Minnesota victory over the White Sox

The son of former Twins catcher Sal Butera, Drew Butera has been in the Twins organization since the middle of the 2007 season, when he was acquired in a trade with the New York Mets. The Twins shipped veteran second baseman Luis Castillo, who was to be a free agent at the end of the year, for Butera and minor league outfielder Dustin Martin. The deal was not a popular one in Twins nation, as it appeared to be a money-saving move which made the Twins worse that season, when they weren't that far behind in the playoff hunt. Not only that, but the two players they traded for were essentially non-prospects, Butera in particular.

Butera was the very definition of a no-hit, all-field catcher, a skill set that remains the same today. At the time of the deal, Butera was hitting a measly .188 with a .439 OPS with the Mets' Double-A affiliate. That wasn't that much worse than his career minor league record, as he batted .211 with a .309 slugging percent and a middling 10.1 % walk rate in 890 plate appearances over close to three seasons. That included a full year at low Single-A in which his average finished at .186.

He played better with New Britain, Minnesota's Double-A affiliate, both for the remainder of 2007 and in 2008, but better for Butera still meant an OPS in the mid-to-high .700's. When he moved up to Triple-A in 2009, his performance drooped back to an embarrassing level that was not adequate for any big league player, regardless of his position and defensive attributes.

But with the 2010 season came an opening on the Twins' roster, as long-time backup Mike Redmond departed from Minnesota. Butera won the job as Joe Mauer's caddy over Jose Morales because of his superior defense. Not surprisingly, considering his minor league track record, Butera was one of the very worst hitters in the major leagues. He hit under .200 for the year and managed an OPS of just .533.

The same story has repeated itself in 2011. Butera is hitting even worse this year, as his OPS has dipped to an astonishingly low .472. Only one player with more plate appearances has a worse OPS or a worse wOBA (it's Reid Brignac), and only one player has a worse batting average (that would be Adam Dunn). He's been able to keep his backup job because of Minnesota's fascination with his defense, and also because the Twins lack better options. Having traded away Jose Morales and Wilson Ramos, the best alternatives--Rene Rivera and Steve Holm--got their chances this year, but hit similarly to Butera and didn't have his defensive reputation.

Butera seems to truly be a sterling defensive catcher, but no level of defense can make up for his league-worst hitting. As long as he only plays in a reserve role, he won't harm the Twins too much. If he's forced into a starting role, however, as he was earlier this season when Mauer was out, it could become a serious problem.

Who is Ben Revere?

2011-08-10T22:08:00.000-04:00

Revere takes a tumble rounding second base but still reaches third safely for a triple

Ben Revere lives by a motto: one if by bat, two if by steal. That is to say, he'll get one base with a hit and he'll get to second of his own accord only with a steal, since he has no power to speak of whatsoever.

In all seriousness, Revere came to Minnesota in the 2007 draft, the 28th selection overall, out of a Kentucky high school. He signed just four days after the draft, on June 11, meaning he had an ample playing time with Minnesota's rookie level club that year. He started strong there, showcasing many trends that would continue throughout his minor league career. He hit over .300--.325 to be exact--and ran often, stealing 21 bases in just 50 games, both skills he replicated each year in the minors. Unfortunately he wasn't all that successful on the basepaths, as he was caught on 9 other occasions.

The next season, 2008, was easily Revere's best as a professional, and it vaulted him up prospect rankings. With Beloit, Minnesota's low Single-A affiliate, he flirted with .400 for much of the season, finishing the season at a lofty .379. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was close to even and he demonstrated decent power, giving him an excellent .930 OPS. Scouts and fans alike were excited by that performance, as he was named Minnesota's Minor League Player of the Year. In addition, he jumped from #10 to #2 in Aaron Gleeman's annual ranking of Twins prospects and rated #59 in Baseball America's ranking of prospects across the minor leagues.

That was the last time he would be thought of that highly, though. As he moved up in the system, he still hit for average, had a similar strikeout-to-walk ratio, and stole plenty of bases, albeit not at a very successful rate, but the gap power he showed in the low minors disappeared. His home run rate remained consistently minuscule (about 1 in every 350 plate appearances), but he stopped hitting doubles and triples nearly as often. As a result, his ceiling went from a Johnny Damon or Kenny Lofton type to something much closer to Juan Pierre.

Despite getting hit in the face by a pitch and subsequently fracturing an orbital bone during the 2010 season, Revere recovered and received a call-up in September of that year. His cameo was due to Ron Gardenhire's desire for speed more than anything else, which is why he came to the plate only 30 times over 13 games.

Because of the injury, he had not yet played at Triple-A so that's where he began the 2011 season. After a rash of injuries hit Minnesota, Revere came up to the big league club in early May. While he quickly earned the respect of his manager, as all light-hitting speedsters seem to, his offensive performance has been quite lackluster. His average has dipped to .250 in the majors, meaning his complete lack of power and merely so-so walk rate are no longer palatable. In the field, his noodle arm has been on full display, mitigating his plus-range.

Given the skills Revere has displayed this season, Minnesota would be misguided to cast him as a everyday starter, especially in a corner outfield spot; he profiles more as a solid fourth outfielder who can play all three positions. If he can consistently hit for a higher average, he could be a decent centerfielder a la the aforementioned Juan Pierre, but it's unlikely he'll be much more than that at this point. Of course, he's still young, meaning there is a chance he improves and becomes a more integral part of the Twins' future. He's fun to watch, so Minnesota fans will be hoping for that to happen.

Six in a row, Slowey looks to cure what ails the Twins

2011-08-10T19:06:00.002-04:00

David Ortiz got credit for the game-winning hit again, tapping a slow dribbler toward first base that Phil Dumatrait failed to field because he tripped over his own feet attempting to get the out. A fitting way for Minnesota to allow the go-ahead run to score, and an epitome of their season as a whole. It was their sixth consecutive loss, and they still have one more game against Boston tonight.

That's a pretty swift fall from grace, as the Twins are now 14 games under .500. After a middling road trip, the Minnesota Twins returned home and have completely fallen apart. They suffered a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the White Sox, a team they've owned over the past few years, and followed that up with two losses to open their series with the Red Sox. The starting pitching has been disastrous, with the only even decent start being Carl Pavano's from Sunday, when he went 8 innings and allowed two runs. Unless, of course, you want to count Francisco Liriano's "quality start" yesterday, a game in which he walked a career-high seven batters. He didn't even manage to throw half of his pitches for strikes, missing the zone on 56 of 109 pitches. Somehow, though, he squeezed and squirmed through six innings, giving up only three runs.

Liriano has been just one of the Twins' many problems in the starting rotation. In fact, with Scott Baker headed to the disabled list again, every piece of the rotation has become a problem. Liriano can't throw strikes, as evidenced by his 5.09 BB/9 rate for the season. The issue has been particularly acute of late: over his last seven starts, he's struck out only 1.16 batters for every walk and as a result has allowed opposing batters to get on base over 40% of the time. And, oddly enough, Nick Blackburn has had the same problem. Now, normally Blackburn allows hits like he's throwing the game, but his control and ability to limit walks makes him at least sort of effective. All of a sudden, though, he can't do that either, as he's walked 11 batters over his last two starts. Amazingly, in his last three starts, Blackburn has pitched 12.1 innings and given up 28 (28!) hits and 39 (39!) baserunners. That's a problem if I've ever seen one.

Throw in Brian Duensing, whose struggles against right-handed hitters have seriously limited his effectiveness, and Carl Pavano, whose already-low strikeout rate has dropped to the worst in the majors this year, and the Twins have a rotation that ranks among the worst in the league, and certainly as one of the most hittable. And, finally, with all that being true, Kevin Slowey gets his first starting opportunity only because the Twins' sole starter having a good season finds himself on the DL for the second time.

It's amazing that it's taken this long. Obviously I don't know exactly what caused a seemingly enormous rift between the Minnesota organization, Ron Gardenhire in particular, and Slowey, but it's unfathomable that through all these struggles Slowey has yet to make a start this season. Sure, Slowey figures to give up just as many hits as the other guys in the rotation, but his proven ability to maintain one of the lowest walk rates in the league makes him a superior option. The guy is in his prime at age 27 and has a 4.43 ERA, a 4.21 FIP, and a 1.28 WHIP over 488 career innings--he should never have been demoted to the bullpen in the first place. Those numbers may not look all that impressive, but they compare favorably with all of the pitchers currently in the rotation (with Baker injured). Unlike the Minnesota organization, I am glad to Slowey returning to the big league club in a starting capacity.

Boston Comes to Target Field

2011-08-08T19:50:00.013-04:00

6:55
So I haven't done this since, I think, opening day of the 2009 season. But today is a good day to do a game log because the game is on ESPN, so I won't be needing to switch between windows on my computer.

7:00
Could be a fun game tonight. I'm excited to see the Twins take on Tim Wakefield. Hopefully the knuckleball is all over the place, sending those wild pitches to the plate left and right.

7:11
Good first inning for Scott Baker. He struck out Ellsbury and Crawford, allowed a lazy single to Adrian Gonzalez, and coaxed an easy groundout from Pedroia.

7:14
And of course the ESPN announcers reference the Twins' number of errors (3rd most in the AL) in discussing their defense. I certainly agree that the defense has been bad, at best, but errors are not necessarily a good indicator of that. Apparently Nishioka's out for a couple of days, though, meaning the defense will be better for now. And Trevor Plouffe will finally get some starts. And you know what? Even Matt Tolbert is probably better than Nishioka right now, so wins on all front. I'm not ready to give up on Nishioka, but I do acknowledge he has been very bad in all aspects to this point.

7:20
Wakefield's knuckler seemed to be moving good. Saltalamacchia couldn't catch the first one, and Span looked confused throughout his at bat. Plouffe only looked marginally better, but Mauer did put some good wood on the ball, albeit for a groundout.

7:30
Well, Baker just couldn't get the last out of the inning, but fortunately the Twins managed to get it on the basepaths, as Cuddyer cut off Span's throw home to nail Jed Lowrie rounding second. Speaking of which, Span's throw was embarrassing; if we wanted a throw home that started bouncing around second base, Ben Revere would be out there.

7:39
Wow, I don't know who this official scorer is. Cuddyer gets a double for the ball that Carl Crawford dropped, and then Saltalamacchia gets an error on his attempt to tag Cuddyer? As the announcers joked on Cuddyer's hit, his cousin must be scoring this game. And he must not like Saltalamacchia either.

7:45
Good thing that ball rolled past Saltalamacchia so slowly, because Jim Thome isn't exactly a speedster. And that's exactly what I was hoping to see against Wakefield: the knuckleball wreaking havoc for the Red Sox.

8:04
A nice inning for Baker there, getting three quick outs and not allowing a baserunner. I feel like Baker is not appreciated enough for what he does. His ERA is a nifty 3.01, his FIP is only slightly higher at 3.38, and is striking out over 8 batters per 9 innings. What am I missing? Isn't he having a really nice year?

8:09
Somehow Lowrie gets an error on that rocket by Thome, while Crawford doesn't get one for dropping Cuddyer's fly ball. On a related note, you always appreciate hustle from your player, but Lowrie didn't need to chase it down with the urgency he showed, especially with the left fielder coming in to get it anyway. He could have traipsed after the ball and picked some dandelions along the way, and Thome still would have been content with a single.

8:23
Darn. I came in at the tail end of the announcers' discussion of Nishioka; I would've liked to hear what they had to say about him, even if I don't necessarily value what they say. To hear the tone from baseball people (if you'd consider former players to be that) would be interesting. No matter, though. Mauer scalding the ball like that is much more important to me. Seriously, that ball was smoked. You could tell by the way it skidded across the outfield grass and made it all the way to the warning track before it was cut off.

8:32
Nice pitch sequence there to Gonzalez. Down 3-1 in the count, Baker got him to chase 3 consecutive pitches out of the zone. The first was a whiff, the second a foul, and the third in play for a sacrifice fly. But with a leadoff triple and the middle of the order coming up that could have been a big inning.
...Speak of the devil. Ortiz just totally blasted a pitch to right-center. Just a one-run lead now. Come on, Scott, you're pitching for 3 of my teams (the Twins and my two fantasy baseball teams).

8:35
Oh no. Would you look at that. Not good. Back-to-back homers. Now it's tied.

8:54
Yikes, it's Phil Dumatrait. It's so disappointing to see him come out of the bullpen every time. And then you go, "Don't the Twins have ANYONE better they can bring in?" But they don't. Or they do, but they're only marginally better. The bullpen is just in sad, sad shape. Jose Mijares, Alex Burnett, and Dumatrait have all been really bad, and Matt Capps isn't far behind. And Dumatrait predictably didn't get the job done, unless you consider getting one out and loading the bases to be 'getting the job done'. Of course I'm sure Gardenhire will blame Plouffe for not being able to complete the diving play when he got his glove on the ball.

9:06
Wow, absolutely huge double play there. I just took a shot at Capps, and have been doing so regularly for a while (I often refer to him as Cappsize), so I've got to give him credit there. He threw some good pitches and got exactly what the Twins needed. And, to some surprise, the defense got the job done, completing the 5-4-3 double play to get the speedy Pedroia and prevent any runs from scoring.

9:16
Is it just me or does Wakefield look like he's got a bit of a potbelly? I really don't think it's me. Span now hitless in his last 18 at bats. He's threatening his mark from last year of 23 at bats in a row without a hit. And more futility, as Tolbert somehow gets caught stealing by a very wide margin despite the fact that Wakefield threw a 70 mile-per-hour pitch.

9:25
That's just a devastating drop by Mauer at home plate. Ortiz was dead-to-rights, the announcers were correct. I was a good distance away from the TV at the time of the play, and I assumed he was out before I got closer and realize Mauer had dropped it. It was a good throw by Tolbert, though, one that I'm not sure Nishioka would have been able to make. In fact, all three grounders handled by Tolbert are ones that would have made me very nervous if Nishioka was out there. I'm really rooting for him, so I don't like to give him a hard time, but he just doesn't seem to have a very strong arm at all. Tolbert made all of those throws look easy, which they really should be (and you know I hate to give credit to Tolbert).

9:34
It's a crime that Mauer didn't get a hit on that--he just scalded it. And Cuddyer didn't get the runner in from third with fewer than two outs anyway.

9:42
That'll work though. Big hit from Kubel! Let's hope Glen Perkins stays in, because I don't trust anyone else to get three outs here. [Oh, good, looks like he will pitch the ninth.]

9:55
Perkins caught Ellsbury stealing, with Cuddyer making a great throw and Tolbert providing a good tag to nab him. Then, after Perkins allowed a hit to Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Nathan came in for relief. He threw a lot of good pitches against Pedroia, with the announcer oddly nitpicking just about every one of them, before he weakly grounded to third base for an infield single. Valencia didn't handle it cleanly, but that's to be expected and he might not have had it anyway.

9:59
And now it's 8-6, and it looks like the Twins will lose once again. 51-64. Come on. Will they ever win again? It's just so frustrating. I don't even think Nathan pitched badly. He battled Pedroia and got a weak groundball, and one of the other two hits was a broken bat blooper. Sometimes it just seems like you'll never get the breaks. I can't imagine how Mariners fans felt a couple weeks ago.

10:12
Ugh. I'm putting on Seinfeld. Until the top of the ninth, I really thought they had this one.

2010 Highlights

2011-08-08T17:33:00.000-04:00

Somehow, despite how late in posting these I am every year, I top myself the next year. Now's a good time to look back at the highlights of the 2010 season, however, considering the lack of highlights the 2011 Twins are currently producing. Without further ado...

Honorable Mentions
4/12- Twins win first game in the history of Target Field
5/21- Twins score 7 runs in the first and lead 15-0, but Carlos Gomez still admires his 3-run homer in the eighth inning
6/26- Johan Santana pitches his first game against Minnesota, but Carl Pavano bests him with a complete game shutout
8/10- Twins hit five homers to beat White Sox and take over first place
9/4- Michael Young makes the last out when he contacts his third base coach, giving the Twins the victory

10. Liriano strikes out 7 straight hitters in outdueling Tim Hudson (June 11th vs. Atlanta)
It was a magical night during a fantastic season for Francisco Liriano. Having given up a run in the second inning to put the Twins down 1-0, Liriano came back with a vengeance in the next frame. Melky Cabrera started it with a groundout, but following that Liriano struck out seven consecutive Braves batters. Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar, and Omar Infante all went down on strikes before David Ross grounded an 0-1 fastball to second base for an out. By then, Liriano had tied a Twins record with the 7 consecutive strikeouts, a feat accomplished once before in 1966 by Jim Merritt. All except Escobar struck out swinging, and five of them went down on sliders while two were victims of Liriano's changeup. When all was said and done, Liriano had pitched 8 innings of 1-run ball to go with 12 strikeouts, leading the Twins to victory over Tim Hudson and the Braves.

9. Valencia hits a walk-off single against the Tigers (September 1st vs. Detroit)
Francisco Liriano battled Max Scherzer in a pitcher's duel that saw the score tied at one after a full slate of nine innings. Liriano threw seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts before giving way to the bullpen, which gave up the game-tying run in the eighth inning. Scherzer, meanwhile, tossed a career-high nine innings and racked up nine punchouts, but did allow one run. That set the stage for Danny Valencia to come to the plate facing Tigers reliever Ryan Perry in the bottom of the tenth with one out and Michael Cuddyer on second base. And Valencia delivered, lining a game-winning single to left-centerfield that scored Cuddyer. The Minnesota victory, their second one-run win over the Tigers in two days, put the final nail in Detroit's coffin, pushing them 12 games behind the Twins in the division.

8. Kubel's pop up hits a catwalk at Tropicana Field, scoring the deciding runs (August 5th at Tampa Bay)
It looked like the Twins would grab an easy victory over the Rays. As the eighth inning rolled around, the Twins led 6-0 and Kevin Slowey was cruising. B.J. Upton led off the inning with a solo homer, however, and after a hit batter, single, and a walk--and getting two outs--Slowey was removed from the game. Jesse Crain and Ron Mahay offered no relief whatsoever, though, walking in a run and allowing a game-tying grand slam, respectively. In the next half-inning, the Twins were threatening with runners on the corners and two outs. That's when Jason Kubel hit a sky-high pop up that looked to be the end of the Twins' scoring chance; instead, the ball glanced off the highest catwalk at Tropicana Field, which is referred to as the A ring and sits about 190 feet above the playing field. Kubel, only the second player ever to have hit the A ring, chuckled as he stood at first base having earned an RBI for driving in the go-ahead run. Cuddyer singled to follow him, adding an insurance run that turned out to be unnecessary as Matt Capps closed out the 8-6 victory.

7. Span hits 3 triples in one game, helping the Twins beat the Tigers (June 29th vs. Detroit)
Having relinquished first place the night before to Detroit, the Twins were looking for a reversal of fortune on this Tuesday afternoon. Denard Span got them off to a good start, lacing a ball into the gap that rolled to the deepest crevice of Target Field, right at the 403 foot sign, and racing into third base for a triple. In the fourth inning, following a single in the third, Span hit a deep drive over the head of Magglio Ordonez, whose attempt to catch it was vaguely reminiscent of Delmon Young. It then bounced back past him after hitting the wall, allowing Span to scamper in for an easy triple. The very next inning Span came up again, blasting a pitch deep into right field, looking like it was a sure homer. It hit high off the wall, though, and bounced over Ordonez's head; it was actually misplayed so badly by Ordonez that first baseman Miguel Cabrera ended up fielding the ball, giving Span another easy triple. He had a chance to set the modern era record with 4 triples in a game, but instead drew a four-pitch walk, settling for becoming the 29th player to hit 3 triples in a game since 1919, the third since 1990, and the second Twin ever to do so. His five RBIs also helped the Twins take over first place with an 11-4 victory.

6. The Twins steamroll the Royals 19-1 (July 26th at Kansas City)
It was just one of those days where everything went right for the Twins. And, once more, it was Francisco Liriano pitching a great game, as seems to be becoming a pattern in these highlights. He threw seven scoreless innings, allowing only three hits and walking no one. But obviously the bats were the real story on this day, as the Twins set a season-high with 19 runs, the most since their 20-run outburst against Chicago the previous July. Danny Valencia set the tone by smacking a 2-out grand slam off Zack Greinke in the first inning to put the Twins up 6-0. Joe Mauer was the star of the show, though, collecting five hits in as many at bats, doubling, homering, and driving in 7 runs. Valencia and Delmon Young also had four hits apiece, making this one of three times during the 2011 that three teammates had at least four hits. The team combined for 11 extra base hits, the most in one game for the Twins since 2002, and tying the most since 1979. All in all, it was a fun day to be a Twins fan.

5. The Twins clinch the AL Central division title (September 21st vs. Cleveland)
Unlike the 2008 and 2009 season, the Twins had a relatively comfortable September, locking up the division title with 11 games to go in the 2010 season. On this day, it was Scott Baker who started and gave the Twins five solid innings. Still, Minnesota trailed until late in the game, when a 4-run eighth inning put the Twins up 6-4 on the Indians. Denard Span drove in the go-ahead run with a single, and Orlando Hudson brought Span in with a double to stretch the lead to two. Matt Capps came on for the ninth and picked up the save, ending the game with a strikeout of Michael Brantley. The win meant the White Sox would have to win every remaining game on their schedule, along with the Twins having to lose all of their remaining games, to even achieve a tie in the division. When Chicago lost later that night, it was official: the Minnesota Twins were the 2010 American League Central Division Champions!

4. The Twins score 4 runs in the ninth to walk-off against the White Sox (July 18th vs. Chicago)
Coming into this four-game series with the White Sox, the Twins were 3.5 games out of first place. After a tough series-opening loss, they trailed Chicago by 4.5 games. They won the next two, however, giving themselves a chance to cut the lead to 1.5 games with a victory in this one. That didn't look all that likely when the ninth inning arrived, given that Minnesota was down by the score of 6-3. Bobby Jenks was in to close the game, but he didn't even manage to get an out. Walks to Orlando Hudson and Joe Mauer and singles by Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer brought Jenks' night to a quick end with the White Sox clinging to a 6-5 lead. Sergio Santos came in and promptly walked Jason Repko, loading the bases for Delmon Young, who hit a shallow fly ball to center. It dropped in front of Alex Rios, bringing in the tying and, after Rios threw the ball in the vicinity of the third base dugout, the winning run. With that, the Twins had scored four runs in the ninth to win in walk-off style without making an out in the inning.

3. The Twins make up 5 runs in the ninth before beating the Phillies in 11 innings (June 19th at Philadelphia)
It was a wild night in Philadelphia, as the Twins and Phillies had more combined players hit home runs than in any other game in either 2009 or 2010. Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Joe Mauer, and Drew Butera all homered for Minnesota, while Philadelphia had five players each hit one, for a total of 9 different players. Down 9-4 in the ninth, the Twins looked dead to rights in the final game of the series. But four of those homers were yet to come, as Jim Thome followed an inning-opening single by Delmon Young with one of them. With a Nick Punto walk and a Denard Span single, the Twins trailed by just two with a man on and Mauer coming to the plate, but the Phillies had also gotten two outs in between. No matter, though, as Mauer tied the game with a 2-run blast. In the tenth, Butera and Ross Gload traded solo shots, keeping the game even at 10. An RBI infield single and a 2-run double by Young and Matt Tolbert, respectively, finally stretched the lead to 13-10 and gave the Twins the victory once Jon Rauch had taken care of business in the bottom of the inning.

2. Kubel's grand slam off Mariano Rivera lifts the Twins over the Yankees (May 16th at New York)
It was the Yankees again. You knew the story. The Twins go to Yankee Stadium, they get beat. Blowout, walk-off, it could have been either, but you knew they would lose. They lost all 10 games against the Yankees in 2009 (including playoffs), and lost the first 2 of this series. Since 2007, they had run up 11 consecutive losses at Yankee Stadium. So when the eighth inning opened with the Twins trailing 3-1, no one would have blamed you for turning the game off. Even when the Twins loaded the bases with two outs, it still seemed a foregone conclusion that they would lose, especially with Mariano Rivera about to enter the game. Then Jim Thome drew a walk, forcing home a run; but how many times had the Twins come close against the Yankees, only to lose in painful fashion? Well, Jason Kubel changed that pattern when he drilled a 1-0 pitch from Rivera into the seats in the right field corner for a grand slam. All of a sudden, Minnesota led New York, 6-3. After Brian Duensing, Matt Guerrier, and Jon Rauch combined to end the game with two scoreless innings, Twins fans could finally celebrate a win in Yankee Stadium for the first time since 2007.

1. Thome hits a walk-off homer against the White Sox (August 17th vs. Chicago)
The White Sox rode into Minneapolis as losers of six of their last eight games. The Twins opened the series on the heels of a 4-game winning streak. Minnesota's division lead was up to 3 games. A good series against the White Sox could utterly deflate them, whereas a bad series could have the opposite effect. After Matt Capps blew the save, allowing a game-tying solo home run to Alexei Ramirez, Jon Rauch gave up a go-ahead RBI single to Ramirez in the tenth inning. The Twins weren't done though. Delmon Young opened the bottom half of the frame with a single, and then Jim Thome strode to the plate. Matt Thornton delivered an 0-1 fastball that Thome absolutely crushed for the first walk-off home run in Target Field history, a no-doubter that gave the Twins a 7-6 victory. As Thome circled the bases, the rest of the team circled home plate, awaiting his impending arrival with gigantic grins on their faces. With the benefit of hindsight, it sure seemed like a turning point in the season for both teams.

Who is Jim Thome?

2011-08-05T12:55:00.006-04:00

Against the White Sox, Thome hits the first walk-off home run at Target Field

Jim Thome was already 39 years old when he joined the Twins. When he left Minnesota, he was two days shy of his 41st birthday.. He had been drafted and had already signed with the Indians two months before I was born. He was easily the oldest player on the Twins roster. Not coincidentally, he's also one of the most accomplished player the Twins have ever employed. Since he debuted with Cleveland in 1991, Thome simply hit everywhere. He finally grabbed hold of full-time at bats in 1995, posted an OPS just shy of 1.000, and never looked back. In each of the next nine seasons, he had an OPS of at least .925 and hit no fewer than 30 home runs, while also driving in over 100 runs in eight of those seasons. For close to two decades, Thome was of the best power hitters around.

After spending his first 12 years with Cleveland and the next 3 with Philadelphia, Thome joined the Chicago White Sox. Though his overall stat line drooped a little, it was still very good. He also, more memorably, made a name for himself with Chicago as a Twin-killer. As is often the case, perception differs from the statistics, as his overall line against the Twins in his 4 seasons with Chicago was only a tad better than his numbers as a whole. A ridiculous 6-game stretch against Minnesota in 2007, however, in which he hit a homer in each game, had 14 RBIs, and hit .541, combined with his iconic homer in the play-in game in 2008, made that reputation stick.

Therefore, following the 2009 season, the Twins employed a new strategy: if you can't beat 'em, sign 'em! By inking Thome to a one-year contract for $1.5 million, the Twins made a low-risk deal to bring in one of the most likable players in the Majors. They never imagined the kind of season they would get from Thome. Despite a balky back that often kept him from playing consecutive days, even at designated hitter, Thome had his best season in years. He hit 25 homers in just 279 at bats and put up his highest slugging percent (.627) and OPS (1.039) since 2002.

Thome instantly became a fan favorite in Minnesota. He could seemingly do no wrong, and even swatted his first triple since 2004, a span of 3,049 plate appearances. Never known as a speedster, as evidenced by his three stolen bases this millenium and just one since 2002, even Thome's quickest days were gone many years ago. His home run trot at that point was actually his top speed, and the old baseball joke that it takes two hits to score a man from second was actually true. But on June 28, Thome got some luck when a ball he smoked off the outfield fence caromed off the side of the scoreboard, bouncing in a completely unexpected direction and allowing him to make it all the way to third base.

The rejuvenated season had a personal reward for Thome: it left him just 11 home runs short of 600 for his career, something only 7 other players have ever done. That number would, fair or not, probably seal his candidacy to be included in the Hall of Fame. What had seemed an unrealistic goal prior to the 2010 season, as he struggled to find a home, now appeared well within reach. He was, predictably, not as good in 2011, but had another fine season in Minnesota. That including his milestone 600th home run off of Daniel Schlereth on August 15, his second of the game, against Detroit. Just ten days later, Thome's career with Minnesota came to an when the Twins shipped him to the Indians, largely in the interest of giving Jim a chance to play in the postseason.

Updated August 26, 2011

Who is Michael Cuddyer?

2011-08-05T01:15:00.001-04:00

Cuddyer becomes the first Twins position player to pitch since John Moses in 1990

The longest-tenured current Twin, Cuddyer has had an interesting journey to this stage in his career. A hot prospect for many years, Cuddyer bounced between being a frustrating disappointment and a key contributor for many years before settling in as one of the most popular Twins players, particularly among the media.

Cuddyer was drafted by Minnesota in the first round in 1997. As with many top prospects, negotiations lasted a while and he did not sign until mid-August, meaning his professional debut would wait until 1998. After a strong performance at low Single-A that year, Cuddyer began his five-year stint on Baseball-America's list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, never rating worse than #55. Remaining such a highly rated prospect for so long is relatively unusual because the player normally reaches the big leagues or plays poorly enough to be removed from the list within that period of time.

Following a particularly impressive season at Double-A in 2001 in which he hit 30 home runs, Cuddyer got a cup of coffee with the Twins in late September. He returned to the minors for the next season, putting up even better numbers at Triple-A. That resulted in him getting two different stints with the Twins during the 2002 season, not to mention his inclusion on the playoff roster. Overall his season was just solid, but he did hit well in the divisional series against the Oakland Athletics.

All of that was enough to get him to #17 in Baseball America's prospect rankings, his highest position in his last season being eligible for the list, since he'd no longer be considered a rookie after the 2003 season. Though he made the big league club out of Spring Training, Cuddyer struggled and was sent back to Triple-A in early May as he was hitting just .233. He would not return until August 31, despite putting up very good numbers in the minors once again. He ended the season with solid but unspectacular statistics, just as he had in 2003.

The next two seasons saw more of the same. Cuddyer was a full-time big leaguer and got relatively frequent at bats over the two seasons, but did appreciably improve his performance. Given his prospect status, the merely solid lines he regularly produced had become quite disappointing. Before the 2006 season, in fact, many fans had soured on him and were ready to get rid of him. Of course, Cuddyer finally broke out in 2006, slugging 24 homers, driving in over 100 runs, and increasing his OPS by about 100 points. Having played predominately infield--third base, second base, and first base--Cuddyer spent this season as the Twins' regular right fielder.

Cuddyer's performance in 2007, however, was closer to his early career than it was to his breakout year. Still, the Twins saw fit to reward him with a 3-year, $24 million contract. While not necessarily exorbitant, the contract was probably more than a small-market team such as Minnesota should have been willing to spend on a player of Cuddyer's ilk. That problem only became exacerbated when Cuddyer put together the worst season of his career in 2008, in no small part due to injuries. He dislocated his right index finger just a few days into the season, and then, after returning in late April, injured his left index finger at the end of June. This time he would miss more than two months, compounded by the fact that he fractured his foot while on a rehab assignment. Though he missed more than half the season due to these injuries, he was also ineffective when he was in the lineup.

The tide had definitively turned once again, as Twins fans regarded Cuddyer as an overpaid player who was unnecessarily locked into a starting spot because of his contract. But Cuddyer had one more turn planned. In the midst of a good season that was only a shade worse than 2006, he was forced to move to first base in mid-September when Justin Morneau was placed on the disabled list. He cemented a place in the hearts of Twins fans with a memorable performance to end that season, hitting .325 with 8 homers, 24 RBIs, and a 1.073 OPS over the final 21 games to help the Twins complete a historic comeback and overtake the Detroit Tigers for the division championship.

Cuddyer's numbers dropped again in 2010, but are again at their 2006 level this season. An accomplished magician and a favorite of the Twins media, Cuddyer has had many memorable moments with the Twins. He's hit for the cycle, he's the only Twin to ever hit two home runs in the same inning, and he even got on the mound and pitched earlier this season in a 20-6 blowout. Oddly enough, his positive presence has created a backlash, as some fans think the Twins overvalue him because of this. While this is probably true, he is still a good player who is fun to have on your team, even if Ron Gardenhire sometimes insists on putting him at positions, such as second base and centerfield, that he is clearly not qualified to play.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Analysis

2011-08-04T18:31:00.002-04:00

So Twin #2 asked me earlier today for advice on a trade he was offered in a fantasy baseball league. I figured, if I'm going to spend a lot of time properly analyzing it, I might as well post it here. And maybe I'll do this with other trades in the near future. Or maybe not. You know me, I'm fairly unreliable.

Type: Head-to-Head
Number of Teams: 12
Categories: Standard 5 x 5 (AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB; W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)
Rosters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 4xOF, UTIL; 3xSP, 3xRP, 3xP; 5 Bench, 1 DL
Max Innings: None
Keeper Style: None

Joe Nathan's Hot Dog's (JN) trades 1B Adam Dunn, OF Colby Rasmus, OF Drew Stubbs, SP Jhoulys Chacin to Seattle Slew (SS) for 1B/2B/3B/OF Michael Cuddyer, OF Shin-Soo Choo, SP Anibal Sanchez, SP Matt Garza

My approach to evaluating trades is twofold: 1) is the value changing hands in my favor (or at least equivalent)? and 2) does what I receive provide an upgrade over the drop-off that results from the players I am trading away? If the answer to question 1 is no, I could pursue a different trade that would satisfy question 2 while also not forcing me to lose overall value. If the answer to question 2 is no, then there's really no point in doing the trade. I may be getting more value, but I'm not actually helping my team. Of course if you're then going to trade the new player(s) in a move that will improve your lineup, that's a different situation; however, I don't usually like to count on that in the fickle trading environment that is fantasy sports.

To start, I always like to simplify the trade and break it down piece-by-piece. In this case we've got individual swaps of Dunn for Cuddyer, Rasmus for Choo, Stubbs for Garza, and Chacin for Sanchez. Obviously there are different ways to break up this trade, but that's how I'll be looking at it.

Everyone is familiar with Dunn's struggles, as he's threatening to break the all-time record for lowest batting average for hitter who qualifies for the batting title. Right now he's at .166, leaving significant space between him and Rob Deer's record-setting .179 average in 1991. The question of course is what will happen going forward. Prior to this season, he was among the most consistent fantasy players, hitting between 38 and 40 homers each of the last six seasons and driving in between 92 and 105 runs each of the last seven seasons. It's hard to say why it's happened, as his walk rate is similar and his batted ball profile is largely the same, save for an uptick in infield fly balls. Regardless, the danger is that his jaw-droppingly bad numbers will force him to the bench, which actually just might be a plus for fantasy owners. When a player's owners would benefit from him being benched, I'm not looking to acquire him.

But how much of an upgrade is Cuddyer? His positional versatility is a big plus, especially given he can play at the wasteland that is third base this year. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities going forward as he's locked into the fourth spot in the lineup with a healthy Joe Mauer getting on base in front of him, along with the recent return of Denard Span to the top of the batting order. If Justin Morneau ever comes back, that would only improve his situation. The batting average will probably come down a tad, perhaps around .280 for the rest of the season, but otherwise the production is largely for real. Getting Cuddyer for Dunn is a huge win for JN.

The Rasmus-for-Choo swap could be beneficial to both teams. As SS is in tight competition for a playoff spot and every game is crucial, it would do him well to get some immediate value for Choo. JN, on the other hand, stands in first place and will almost assuredly make the playoffs, meaning he can afford to carry an additional injured player on his roster. The issues are whether Choo will play any better than he did at the beginning of the season, prior to his injury, and whether Rasmus's new home in Toronto will change his performance for the better.

Honestly, I'm not especially confident about either player, but Rasmus at least is healthy. I'm not sure I buy the change-of-scenery argument, but I do buy an improved lineup position (he's hit number two in every game with the Blue Jays) and a better home park for hitters. I can see a moderate improvement in his numbers across the board, especially in batting average where he's been unlucky anyways. Choo, meanwhile, really struggled this season after two very good years, and admitted some of it was mental as a result of the DUI he was charged with. I don't think, given those factors, that he'll pick up where he left off in 2010; rather I see him playing fairly similarly to Rasmus except with a few more steals the rest of the way. That means this part of the trade favors SS, since Choo will not be playing for at least 2 more weeks.

As for the starting pitcher trade, this obviously depends on who you like--I would rather have Sanchez. Chacin's bouts with wildness make him too susceptible to disastrous outings, and I think his WHIP (1.18) is unsustainably low, given the amount of free passes he hands out. His FIP (4.42) also indicates his ERA (3.38) has had similar good fortune, but I'm more concerned about his WHIP. His strikeouts are solid and could even rise closer to last year's mark, but the other categories appear bound to decline. Sanchez's ERA (3.74) and WHIP (1.26) are currently higher than Chacin's, but I think they are much more stable. His 2010 season was quite similar, lending credence to that argument. His career K/9 of 7.43 makes me skeptical of his current rate (9.37) but otherwise I'd be happy to have Sanchez.

I always find pitcher-for-hitter swaps the most difficult to analyze, and that's why I've left the Stubbs-for-Garza part of the deal for last. I think Garza is very comparable to Sanchez, as he has a 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a very good strikeout rate (9.02) that's above his career rate. Despite the fact that he pitches for a Cubs team that figures to make wins hard to come by over the final two months, I like Garza a little more. His ERA could come down somewhat and his strikeout rate is more likely to stay that high, given that he was more of a strikeout pitcher in the minors and that his career Major League rate was accumulated in the American League.

Stubbs is a good fantasy player whose low average holds him back. He'll provide more steals and runs than either Choo or Rasmus, but in terms of his home run and RBI outlook he's fairly similar. Rasmus, and certainly Choo, might give your team positive contributions in average, whereas Stubbs is pretty assuredly going to hit in the .250 range. In a vacuum, I'd take Stubbs over Garza because of the prevalence of good pitchers this season.

Now that we know how each aspect of the trade rates individually, it's time to consider them together and then within the context of each team's roster. JN turns Dunn into Cuddyer, a vast improvement, and solidly upgrades his starting pitching from Chacin to Sanchez. He also takes a risk, and a small downgrade, by giving up Rasmus for the injured Choo and swaps Drew Stubbs for Matt Garza, additionally bolstering his pitching. In terms of pure value, it seems like JN is making off better, largely because he is able to get a big improvement on offense (Cuddyer over Dunn) without really losing much in the other swaps.

As for how this fits with each team, it is reasonably sensible for both, but much better for JN. JN is first or second in every batting category, except for batting average where he is below average, but is not doing as well in the pitching categories. Therefore grabbing two good pitchers (Garza and Sanchez) while only giving up one solid one (Chacin) makes a lot of sense. Trading Stubbs, Rasmus, and Dunn likely won't have too much of an impact because JN's offense is already very strong. Rasmus didn't start normally anyways and Dunn will be replaced by the superior Cuddyer, but there will be a downgrade when Danny Espinosa slides into the lineup to replace Stubbs. All in all, there's not much, if any, value lost on offense, and when you consider the possibility that Choo comes back and plays like he did the previous two seasons, this trade seems like a no-brainer for JN.

Meanwhile, SS ranks second-to-last in steals and first in batting average; thus the addition of Stubbs is a nice fit, since he needs help in steals and can handle the underwhelming average. Getting Rasmus is also a good move since that means both Casey McGehee and Chris Heisey, with his inconsistent playing time, can be pushed to the bench. SS needs help in wins, ERA, and WHIP, too, though, and this trade weakens him in all three categories.

The biggest problem, however, is that SS will have to go shopping in the free agency pool for a second baseman to replace Cuddyer. He has players he shouldn't hesitate to drop (McGehee for instance), but the options simply are not very appealing. The loss in pitching can be made up for with the additions of Stubbs and Rasmus, but I just can't overlook the fact that Dunn would have to actually do something for this trade to be a good one for SS. I'm not counting on that, and unless SS is, I don't think this is a trade he should do. Perhaps swapping Espinosa in for Dunn makes this trade more viable, as that would give SS a second baseman while not changing the outlook for JN all that much--Dunn (or someone else) would simply occupy the utility spot in place of Espinosa presumably until Choo came off the disabled list.

Twins Crank 5 Homers to Beat Angels

2011-08-04T13:58:00.002-04:00

Coming off of three consecutive losses in which the starting pitchers had combined to allow 36 walks-plus-hits and 19 runs in 14.1 innings, the Twins could really have used a strong start from Scott Baker. Instead Baker continued the miserable run of starting pitching, tacking on just 3 innings to the totals, but adding 6 walks-plus-hits and 4 runs. Anthony Swarzak was up to the task, however, pitching 5 excellent innings of relief, allowing only one hit and one walk.

The game actually started smoothly for Baker, and through the first two innings he was looking effective. Everything completely unraveled in the third frame, though, as he was forced to throw 46 pitches to make it through the disastrous inning. While Swarzak held the Angels down, the bats ensured the win. The Twins tied their season high in runs with 11, hit 5 home runs, and tallied 7 extra base hits. The 5 home runs are also a season-high, and a feat the team has accomplished only two other times since 2008. Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young had two home runs each, the first time that two Twins players have both had multi-homer games since October of 2009. That time it was Young and Jason Kubel who victimized the Kansas City Royals. Kubel also added the fifth home run in this game.

Minnesota was aided by Horacio Ramirez, who was brought up by the Angels to toss batting practice before games, but was mistakenly identified as a real pitcher by Mike Scioscia. Seriously, since he was called up he has faced 20 hitters and given up 10 hits and 2 walks. Of course it's a really small sample, but so far the returns indicate that when you bring in a a 31-year old pitcher who was never very good to begin with, has a career WHIP of 1.49, and has almost as many strikeouts as walks over his career... well, he's not really going to pitch that well. The Twins, one would hope, learned this lesson long ago after their attempts to bring in Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, and every veteran innings eater who can't get a contract with any other team because they are terrible.

Who is Jason Kubel?

2011-08-03T23:52:00.000-04:00

Kubel hits a go-ahead grand slam off Mariano Rivera

"I've got a fever and the only prescription is more Kubel!" A parody of a Saturday Night Live skit, Nick Nelson of Nick's Twins Blog popularized this quote throughout the Twins blogosphere at the beginning of the 2008 season. It represented the growing frustrations among Twins fans that Kubel was not receiving enough playing time, as his production in both the minor and major leagues indicated he was ready for a full-time job.

Of course, this may never have been an issue if not for the devastating knee injury that Kubel suffered in the fall of 2004. After impressing at every stop in the minor leagues, Kubel found himself starting the 2003 season at Double-A. He took his performance to another level, putting up video game numbers (.377 average, 1.119 OPS) before being promoted to Triple-A. He cooled off a tad there, but still had an OPS close to 1.000. After a decent cameo with Minnesota in September, the organization and fans alike were brimming with optimism and excitement regarding Kubel's future. He was the Twins' Minor League Player of the Year and was ranked the #17 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America.

And then, in the Arizona Fall League, Kubel collided with a teammate in the outfield and tore the ACL and PCL in his left knee. He would miss the entire 2005 season and was even in jeopardy of not being ready at the beginning of the 2006 season. He did recover in time, though, and in fact managed to make the big league roster to open the year. Kubel struggled, however, and was sent back to Triple-A in mid-April. Although he was back with the Twins in May, the entire season was a painful one as the potential Kubel showed before his knee injury appeared nonexistent.

After a significant improvement in 2007, Kubel showed modest gains in 2008. While his offensive contributions were decent, Twins fans couldn't help but wonder what might have been if he had avoided the catastrophic knee injury. In 2009, they realized just what that might be. Building upon a strong second half from the previous year, Kubel set career highs in almost every statistical category. He hit .300 with 28 home runs and 103 RBIs, including one fantastic game against the Angels in which he hit for the cycle, capping it off with a go-ahead grand slam with two outs in the eighth inning.

The 2010 campaign, by comparison, was quite disappointing. He did hit 20 home runs for the third consecutive year and he did drive in 92 runs, but otherwise his numbers were significantly worse. This season looked promising, as his average was back above .300, but Kubel hurt his foot at the end of May and, contrary to the proclamations coming from the Twins' medical staff, he went on the disabled list for the next two months. In the short time since his return, he has essentially maintained the numbers he put up from April and May, which would lead to good season-long statistics, albeit lacking in raw totals because of the time he missed.

Who is Denard Span?

2011-08-02T21:06:00.002-04:00


Span celebrates after robbing Adrian Beltre of a go-ahead home run

Drafted out of high school in the first round by the Twins, Denard Span was seen as the team's centerfielder of the future from the moment he signed. Although they had perennial Gold Glover and face of the franchise Torii Hunter patrolling center field at the time, it was clear that eventually he would need to be replaced. At 18 years old, Span's timeline fit well, as he would not be ready for years to come. That time finally came after the 2007 season, when Hunter left the Twins as a free agent and wound up signing with the Los Angeles Angels.

There was just one issue, however: Span hadn't actually played that well in the minor leagues, and certainly not well enough to indicate he would be an equal replacement for Hunter. His performances in terms of OPS were unappealing at Rookie level (.695), Low Single-A (.672), and Double-A (.693). Only in his comparatively brief stint in High Single-A did he have more respective offensive totals (.813 OPS). As a result, the Twins sought a Major League-ready centerfielder as the key component in any trade involving Johan Santana, whom they were shopping during the same offseason. In the end, they acquired Carlos Gomez from the Mets to replace Hunter.

With Gomez in center, the also newly-added Delmon Young in left, and Twins mainstay Michael Cuddyer in right, Minnesota's outfield seemed set for years to come, and Span appeared headed for a backup gig at best. But he got a break when Cuddyer headed to the disabled list just five games into the 2008 season. The Twins called Span's number and he appeared in his first Major League game on April 6. Following a 12-game cameo in which he did not impress, Span was back in Triple-A upon Cuddyer's return.

But two months later, Cuddyer again suffered an injury and went back on the disabled list. In that span of time, a funny thing had happened: Denard Span had begun to play very well. For the year, he had hit .340 and accumulated a .915 OPS, with both numbers being far better than anything he had shown at other, less challenging levels. Usually streaks like that turn out to be a fluke, but Span proved it was nothing of the sort. Called up on June 30, he started each of Minnesota's 81 remaining games, compiling a .297 average, a fantastic .393 OBP, and an .842 OPS (his total season numbers were all slightly worse because of his earlier call-up). Whether it was due to his off-season Lasik eye surgery or other reasons altogether, Span was suddenly a legitimate big league player.

Span had forced his way into the Twins outfield, which caused quite the logjam entering the 2009 season. They still had the aforementioned players aligned in each position, but in addition Span was now available to play any of the three positions. Though he had played right field, save for the occasional spelling of Gomez in center, he could play anywhere in the outfield. With Cuddyer entrenched in right and Jason Kubel the regular DH, Span solidified his role as an everyday starter by essentially duplicating his 2008 performance over the first month, and maintaining that pace throughout the remainder of the season. That left Young and Gomez as the odd men out, fighting for the one starting spot and for spot starts in place of Span, Cuddyer, and Kubel.

2010 was a down year for Span, as his average dipped to .264. Nonetheless he was still a decent contributor, particularly because he moved to center field full time with Gomez having been traded to Milwaukee. Hopeful for a rebound in 2011, Span started off strong and was having a fine year, in part due to his vastly improved defensive rating. Unfortunately, he suffered an unusual concussion sliding into the catcher feet-first and has missed the last two months as a result. He will return to Minnesota for the first time tonight and will attempt to replicate a strong first two months of the season.

2010 Awards

2011-07-29T02:18:00.001-04:00

Only about 8 months late, so nobody's interested. But I'm doing them for my own sake.

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, Texas

AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee, Seattle/Texas

AL Relief Pitcher of the Year: Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay

AL Rookie of the Year: Austin Jackson, Detroit

NL MVP: Joey Votto, Cincinnati

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia

NL Relief Pitcher of the Year: Billy Wagner, Atlanta

NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Atlanta

Who is Delmon Young?

2011-07-28T20:51:00.001-04:00

Young misplays a fly ball, allowing it to become a game-tying inside-the-park-home-run

Delmon Young was, at one point, the hottest prospect in baseball. Taken first overall out of high school by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 2003 draft, Young did not play at all in the minors that season because he didn't sign until September. The Devil Rays inked him to a 5-year, $5.8 million Major League contract and immediately sent him to the Arizona Fall League, a league reserved for each organization's top prospects. Usually the rosters consist of Double-A and Triple-A players, along with the very occasional Single-A player, but they almost never include players who have yet to play an inning of professional baseball.

After Young hit .417 in the AFL, he was assigned to Low Single-A Charleston. Although he struck out a lot, he flashed the power and speed combination that had teams salivating over his potential, and he did it all as an 18-year old. He skipped High Single-A and reported directly to Double-A at the start of the 2005 season. He again hit very well, showcasing the tools that got him drafted number one overall and earning a mid-season promotion to Triple-A. It was there that his lack of patience at the plate really cropped up as a foreboding sign of things to come.

Despite that, Young's performance, combined with the fact that he was playing at Triple-A when he was only 19, made Baseball America rank him as the top prospect in all of baseball. But the 2006 season did not go as planned. Rather than forcing his way into the big leagues, Young was forced to sit out 50 games because he threw his bat at an umpire following a called third strike that he disagreed with. He still managed to make an appearance in Tampa Bay as the Devil Rays brought him up in late August, and made very solid contributions at the tender age of 20.

His rookie year, 2007, was an interesting one. He drove in 93 runs, and garnered enough support to place second in Rookie of the Year voting, but he also showed a total lack of plate discipline and did not display nearly as much power as his pedigree suggested. Either because he was still so young, or because they were swayed by the same thinking as the Rookie of the Year voters, that performance convinced the Twins to acquire him in a blockbuster trade. That offseason, Minnesota sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for Young, along with Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.

Young went 2-4 and stole a base in his first game with Minnesota, but it didn't take long for Twins fans to become disenchanted with Young. Although he showed slightly improved plate discipline, his power disappeared altogether as it took him over 250 plate appearances to hit his first home run. Meanwhile, questions about his effort and attitude cropped up, and his defense appeared to be legitimately awful. Though his power picked up in the second half of the season, on the whole his performance was a replica of his 2007 season; that is to say, not what was expected from the #1 prospect in baseball.

The more Twins fans saw of him, the more ostracized he became. He simply didn't look like an athlete; he lumbered around clumsily in left field, he seemed to be running on glass on the basepaths, and he didn't appear to have any interest in solving his hitting issues. As a result, he lost a lot of playing time during the 2009 season due to Denard Span's emergence. 2010, then, was make or break. With Carlos Gomez out of the way, there was no longer an outfield logjam and he had clear playing time. He reported to camp significantly lighter and finally seemed serious about making good on his potential. And he had by far his best season, hitting 21 homers, driving in 112 runs, cutting down on his strikeouts, and upping his slugging percentage.

But the same issues were still present: he was allergic to walking and his fielding could still be considered the worst of any outfielder in baseball, though at least his attitude looked better. In 2011, he did not maintain the moderate success from 2010, and was again struggling in all aspects of the game. Teams always find it difficult to give up on a player who once had so much potential, and Minnesota was no exception, particularly because Young had showed major improvements the previous year. But enough was finally enough in August of 2011, and the Twins traded Delmon Young to division rival Detroit for an underwhelming player to be named later, identified as Lester Oliveres just a few days later. The very modest return exemplified just how far Young had fallen since Minnesota traded for him after the 2007 season.

Updated August 27, 2011

Who is Danny Valencia?

2011-07-28T15:14:00.002-04:00

Valencia hits his first career home run--a Grand Slam--off Zack Greinke

Minnesota selected Danny Valencia in the 19th round of the 2006 draft out of the University of Miami. A proud alum, Valencia was a roommate of current Indians closer Chris Perez while he was there. Following his sophomore season, Ryan Braun left and vacated the third base job, allowing Valencia to slide over there from first base. That season, his last in college, he lifted his team into the College World Series with a game-winning grand slam against Ole Miss.

He reported to Rookie-ball after signing in July and played both first base and third base there. He ranked second on the Elizabethton Twins in OPS and was near the top of the Appalachian League leaderboard in average, on base percent, slugging percent, and OPS. That was enough to get him noticed, as Aaron Gleeman ranked him #33 among Twins prospects entering the 2007 season, but, as Gleeman put it, "An experienced college hitter beating up on rookie-league competition isn't particularly rare or impressive."

Moving up one level a year, Valencia continued to produce similar results even as the competition got tougher every season. His OPS in 2006 in Rookie league was .870; low Single-A in 2007, .874; in high Single-A in 2008, .921; and in Double-A in 2009, .855. After those performances, Valencia had climbed to the #8 spot in Gleeman's ranking of the Twins prospects prior to the 2009 season. He actually ranked two spots higher the year before, but his time in Triple-A in the second half of the 2009 season was not as successful and caused the drop.

He opened the 2010 season in Rochester, Minnesota's Triple-A affiliate, and didn't play appreciably better than the previous year. His walks, which had disappeared in his stint with Rochester in 2009, resurfaced, but this time his power was nowhere to be seen. After averaging a home run about every 30 at bats throughout his minor league career, Valencia hit zero in 185 at bats. Nonetheless, when Michael Cuddyer went on the bereavement list in early June due to a death in the family, the Twins called on Valencia. He played fairly consistently through his first month and held an average over .300 and an OPS close to .700.

The month of July, however, saw Valencia put together a ridiculous hot streak. Over 53 at bats, he hit .453 and raised his season average to .384. In one absurd 4-game stretch, he had 14 hits in 20 at bats, to go with 4 doubles, 1 home run, and 8 RBIs. The homer was the first of his career, a particularly special one since it was a grand slam off reigning AL Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke. Obviously he cooled off significantly, but still ended the season with a .311 average and an OPS just shy of .800 and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting.

The early hot streak had perhaps clouded Twins fans' minds, though. While Valencia was a solid player, they irrationally thought they were getting a borderline All-Star. Certainly the numbers he contributed during his hot streak were unrepeatable, and even his end-of-season statistics seemed a bit high given his minor league track record. Sure enough, Valencia experienced drops across the board in his performance in 2011. This seemed to irritate manager Ron Gardenhire more than anyone else, as Valencia unfairly made his way into Gardenhire's doghouse. Suddenly, the hot young prospect from a season before was being thrown under the bus by his manager for every mistake he made.

Valencia is probably better than he's played to this point in the season, just as he wasn't as good as he played last season, and even that is good enough to be a low-level starting third baseman. Just because his manager has decided that his inability to repeat his success from his rookie season is good cause to blame him for many of the Twins problems doesn't mean Twins fans should do the same.

Who is Tsuyoshi Nishioka?

2011-07-28T12:34:00.000-04:00

Nishioka breaks his leg just 6 games into his first season in the U.S.

The Twins signed Nishioka out of Japan in December of 2010, winning the right to negotiate with him for $5.3 million and then handing him a 3-year, $9 million contract with an option for 2014. Having played both second base and shortstop and having won Gold Glove-equivalent awards at each position across the ocean, it appeared he would be a defensive asset at either spot. His hitting line was also solid, with a .305 average and .823 OPS over four seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines. His 2010 season was particularly good, as he hit .346 and carried an OPS just north of .900 in 144 games. Although Japanese hitters had typically had trouble reproducing their batting prowess in America, Nishioka figured to certainly be an asset on defense and at least be decent offensively.

After playing both positions in Spring Training, Nishioka opened the season as the Twins' second baseman. Unfortunately, just six games into his American baseball career, he suffered a broken leg as Nick Swisher attempted to break up a double play. The discussion immediately centered on how Nishioka may have been unprepared for the takeout slides typical in American baseball since they are not a common practice in Japanese baseball.

Figuring it would be easier to avoid a similar incident at shortstop, the Twins had Nishioka swap positions with Alexi Casilla upon his return more than two months later. His season did not get significantly better after that, however. While he's avoided injury, his average hovered around the .220 mark and his OPS didn't to surpass .600 at any point after his return. In addition, he didn't look particularly good as a fielder either. He often mishandled balls and his arm appeared relatively weak, and certainly not strong enough to make up for those bobbled balls.

But Twins fans have to remember that, despite his experience in Japan, Nishioka is essentially a rookie. While what Nishioka has shown so far is definitely not worthy of a starting job, or perhaps even a reserve one, in the Majors, he is only 40 games into his first season in America. Not only is he a rookie, but he is adjusting to playing within a new language and a new culture. While he may not play any better than he has, fans must exhibit patience, as his play could easily improve with more exposure. It might not, but it's best to relax and give him a chance since it's still very early in his career and the Twins will be paying him for at least two more seasons anyways.

Every time I think I'm out...

2011-07-28T02:51:00.002-04:00

...they pull me back in.

George Costanza could have been talking about the Twins right now. Following their embarrassing 20-6 loss to the Rangers, the Twins dropped 7 games back of the Tigers, and still also trailed the White Sox and Indians in the Central division. This was it: the Twins' postseason chances were squelched. They had 3 more games on the road against the scorching hot Rangers, winners of 15 of 18 including their drubbing of Minnesota; they ranked second-to-last in the American League in expected win-loss, at 42-60; and, again, they were already 7 games out and in fourth place in the division.

But what did they do? They picked up the pieces and they came out firing. They took a 3-0 lead against the Rangers in the second game of the series. Then they went down 7-3 and still trailed 8-7 in the ninth inning. Thanks to pinch-hit doubles by both Jim Thome and Joe Mauer, the Twins prevailed 9-8. Then they came out and easily won the third game behind a strong start from Brian Duensing and Mauer's first home run of the season.

They only picked up one game on the Tigers since Monday. They remain the second-worst team in the AL in terms of expected win-loss. They still have to pass three different teams to reach the playoffs. But I'm back in. It's amazing what can happen in 48 hours.

Who is Alexi Casilla?

2011-07-27T19:44:00.002-04:00


Casilla hits a walk-off single in the Twins' play-in game against Detroit in 2009

Acquired from the Angels for left-handed reliever J.C. Romero after the 2005 season, Casilla has spent his career with the Twins bouncing between starter and utility man. Rated on the cusp of the top 20 Twins prospects at the time of his acquisition, Casilla put together a very strong year between High Single-A and Double-A and even received a September call-up to the big league club. He started exactly one game, though, and had a total of six plate appearances over the entire month. His success in the minors was enough for John Sickels to call him "a future Luis Castillo" and to bump him up to #9 among Twins prospects before the 2007 season. The comparison seemed apt, as Casilla was a high-average, little-power second baseman who had just stolen 50 bases in his most recent minor league season--not to mention the similar last name.

Casilla arrived with the Twins very early in the 2007 season, but struggled to the tune of a .506 OPS over 45 plate appearances before being sent back to AAA at the end of April. His numbers at that level were less than spectacular, but good enough to convince the Twins that starting second baseman Luis Castillo was expendable. At the trade deadline he was dealt to the Mets and Casilla replaced him as the Twins' everyday second baseman. The transition was not smooth, however, as Casilla played only very marginally better than he had in his April stint with Minnesota and found himself coming off the bench for a good portion of September.

This was just the beginning of the frustrations that the Twins organization and fans alike would feel with Casilla. Seemingly gifted with plenty of talent, Casilla didn't always seem to be in the game. Defensively he had the ability but mental mistakes doomed him time after time. He found his way into Ron Gardenhire's doghouse many times over the next few seasons but continued to get chances because the Twins lacked any better options.

And at points he did take advantage of his opportunities, but never long enough to truly gain the trust of Gardenhire and the Twins organization. Called up in mid-May of the 2008 season, for instance, Casilla went on a hot streak that saw him sustain a .327 batting average and .835 OPS in 180 plate appearances through July 1st. Although that hot start made his end-of-season numbers look halfway decent, the rest of the season was a struggle, including a hand injury that forced him out of action for close to a month.

Just as he had gotten fans' hopes up that he would live up to his talent, Casilla cobbled together a dismal season along the lines of 2007. He made two different trips to AAA but found himself on the roster at the end of the season. That afforded him the opportunity to play in the Twins' play-in game with Detroit. He did not start, for obvious reasons, but did pinch run for Brendan Harris in the tenth inning. Only for that reason was he batting in the twelfth inning of a tie game with runners on first and second. Casilla came up with his crowning achievement as a Twin, a walk-off single to left field that scored Carlos Gomez and won the 2009 AL Central title for Minnesota. As his own personal reward, that hit lifted his batting average over the Mendoza Line for the season, sparing him the ignominy of a sub-.200 average.

The next two seasons saw improved hitting from Casilla, and his defense continues to pass the eye test. As long as he can avoid the mental lapses that plagued him early in his career and hit decently, as opposed to abysmally, Casilla has a chance to produce some solid seasons in a Twins uniform.

Who is Justin Morneau?

2011-07-27T01:20:00.002-04:00


Morneau slides in for the winning run of the 2008 All-Star Game in the 15th inning

Justin Morneau, the Twins' first basemen, hails from Canada and grew up playing and loving hockey. Although he does not have the hometown appeal that Mauer does, he makes up one half of Minnesota's M&M Boys, beloved by Twins fans and feared by opposing pitchers. Morneau is one of the very few true power hitters that Minnesota developed in its own minor league system, as the Twins have a penchant for valuing light-hitting speedsters and consequently producing that type of player.

After tearing through the minor leagues, Morneau put on the big league uniform for the first time in June of 2003. His debut season was brief and not all that impressive, but he built on it in 2004, putting up substantial power numbers in the half-season he spent with the big league club. The next season, 2005, was a struggle, as he was seemingly never himself for the rest of the year after getting hit in the head with a pitch in April. This would prove all-too foreboding later on in his career.

Just as Joe Mauer did, Morneau put himself on the map with an awesome year in 2006. He slugged 34 homers, the first Twin to hit more than 30 in twenty years, and drove in 130 runs, his first of four consecutive seasons with at least 100 RBIs, while also batting .321. All this was good enough to earn him the MVP award despite the fact that he had not even made the All-Star team. Morneau's selection was controversial, and rightfully so, but there was no doubt that he had put together a great year.

2007 saw Morneau make his first All-Star team, the first of four consecutive selections, but the second half was rough and he finished with numbers significantly worse than the year before. He didn't play appreciably better in 2008, but the MVP voters viewed it differently as he finished runner-up. He did have a great All-Star Weekend, winning the Home Run Derby and then scoring the winning run in the All-Star Game in the 15th inning. The fact that he played all 163 games for the Twins may have been a factor in the MVP voting, and it certainly was a factor in Morneau again wearing down in September and playing poorly during the stretch run.

This would become a pattern, as Morneau's 2009 season also ended similarly. He played poorly from mid-August on before his season closed prematurely due to a back injury, putting a damper on an otherwise very good season. And it happened once more in 2010, although through little fault of Morneau's this time. He put together an incredible first half, this time legitimately halfway to earning an MVP award, before he took a seemingly innocuous hit to the head when sliding into second base to break up a double play on July 7th. As it turned out, Morneau had suffered a concussion and would not return to the field until 2011 Spring Training as a result of post-concussion symptoms.

His 2011 season has been a struggle. Perhaps still affected by the concussion, either mentally or physically, and certainly affected by a myriad of other injuries, Morneau has battled through his worst season ever before finally succumbing to the Disabled List because of neck surgery. The Twins' biggest power threat, and one of their most popular players, fans continue to hope that when Morneau returns this time it will be with all of these injuries behind him once and for all.